大越期货玻璃早报-20251216

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass are weak, with production profit repair being sluggish, supply contraction falling short of expectations, downstream deep - processing orders being weak due to the real estate drag, and inventory at a historically high level in the same period. The short - term outlook is for glass to mainly oscillate weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract rose from 1016 yuan/ton to 1039 yuan/ton, a 2.26% increase. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - plate glass remained unchanged at 948 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 68 yuan to - 91 yuan, a 33.82% change [7]. 3.2 Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 948 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [12]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - Regarding glass production profit, no specific profit data is provided. The number of glass production line starts is at a historically low level in the same period, with 219 national float glass production lines in operation and an operating rate of 73.84%. The daily melting volume of float glass is 155,000 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level in the same period [23][25]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.7082 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level in the same period. The capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the original glass inventory [28][5]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 58.227 million weight boxes, a 2.04% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is operating above the 5 - year average [41]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The float glass annual supply - demand balance sheet shows production, consumption, and other data from 2017 to 2024E, including production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio. For example, in 2024E, the production was 55.1 million tons, with a production growth rate of 3.94% and a consumption growth rate of - 1.15% [42]. 3.7 Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: "Coal - to - gas" in the Shahe area and industry cold - repair have led to production losses [4]. - Negative Factors: Weak real - estate terminal demand and low orders from glass deep - processing enterprises, as well as poor capital collection in the deep - processing industry, causing traders and processors to be cautious and focus on inventory digestion [5]. 3.8 Main Logic - Glass supply has stabilized at a low level, downstream deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and glass factory inventory has increased. It is expected that glass will mainly oscillate weakly at a low level [6].