Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, the comprehensive inventory has declined, and the inventory reduction pattern is obvious. The agricultural and industrial demands are mainly on - demand. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has increased significantly year - on - year, and the operating rate of melamine is stable. The export demand has declined in the short term, and the domestic urea market is still in oversupply. It is expected that the trend of UR today will be fluctuating and weak [4]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The current daily production and operating rate are stable, the comprehensive inventory has declined, and the inventory reduction is obvious. The agricultural and industrial demands are on - demand. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has increased significantly year - on - year, and the operating rate of melamine is stable. The export demand has declined in the short term, and the domestic urea market is still in oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1670 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is - 11, and the premium/discount ratio is - 0.7%, which is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.357 million tons (-38,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net short position of the UR main contract is reduced, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The UR main contract is weakly declining. The industrial demand is on - demand, the inventory is being reduced, the short - term export demand has declined, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate weakly today [4]. - Leverage Factors: The positive factor is inventory reduction; the negative factors are domestic oversupply and the continuous new high of daily production. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - Spot: The spot price of the delivery product is 1670 (-20), the Shandong spot price is 1700 (-10), the Henan spot price is 1670 (0), and the FOB China price is 2731 [6]. - Futures: The price of the 05 contract is 1681 (-2), the basis is - 11 (-18), the price of UR01 is 1629 (4), the price of UR05 is 1681 (-2), and the price of UR09 is 1687 (-11) [6]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.357 million tons (-38,000 tons), the number of warehouse receipts is 11,245 (-51) [6]. Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend. The production capacity growth rates in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 were 8.9%, 15.5%, 11.4%, 8.4%, 14.1%, and 13.5% respectively. The consumption growth rates in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 were 12.8%, 17.9%, 2.6%, 0.3%, 5.9%, and 8.4% respectively. The import dependence showed a downward trend [9].
大越期货尿素早报-20251216
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-12-16 02:31