大越期货沥青期货早报-20251216

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows that in December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2158000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. This week, domestic asphalt production decreased, reducing supply pressure, and it is expected to continue next week [8]. - The demand side indicates that the current demand is lower than the historical average. The construction, modification, and waterproofing sectors all show low or declining operating rates [8]. - The cost side reveals that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 361.95 yuan/ton, a 12.00% month - on - month decrease. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 981.9371 yuan/ton, a 2.11% month - on - month decrease. Crude oil is weakening, and short - term support is expected to decline [9]. - The basis shows that on December 15, the Shandong spot price is 2920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract is - 43 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Inventory shows that social inventory is decreasing, factory inventory is increasing, and port inventory is decreasing [9]. - The market trend indicates that the MA20 is downward, and the 02 contract price closes below the MA20. The main positions are net short, with short positions decreasing. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2602 fluctuating in the 2937 - 2989 range [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - Supply: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2158000 tons, a 3.24% month - on - month decrease. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate is 29.9017%, a 0.18 - percentage - point decrease. The sample enterprise output is 499000 tons, a 0.59% decrease. The estimated device maintenance volume is 944000 tons, a 14.29% increase [8]. - Demand: The heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate is 27.8%, unchanged; the construction asphalt operating rate is 6.6%, unchanged; the modified asphalt operating rate is 8.9781%, a 0.25 - percentage - point decrease; the road - modified asphalt operating rate is 27%, a 2 - percentage - point decrease; the waterproofing membrane operating rate is 31.1%, a 2.9 - percentage - point decrease. All are below or close to historical average levels [8]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 361.95 yuan/ton, a 12.00% decrease; the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 981.9371 yuan/ton, a 2.11% decrease [9]. - Basis: On December 15, the Shandong spot price is 2920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract is - 43 yuan/ton [9]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 721000 tons, a 3.22% decrease; factory inventory is 591000 tons, a 0.51% increase; port diluted asphalt inventory is 470000 tons, a 29.85% decrease [9]. - Market: The MA20 is downward, and the 02 contract price closes below the MA20. The main positions are net short, with short positions decreasing [9]. - Expectation: The refinery's recent production reduction eases supply pressure. Due to the off - season, demand is sluggish. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2602 fluctuating in the 2937 - 2989 range [9]. 2. Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend: Figures show the historical trends of Shandong and East China basis from 2020 - 2025 [18][20]. - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: Figures show the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 - 2025 [23]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: Figures show the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and WTI oil from 2020 - 2025 [26]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: Figures show the historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 - 2025 [29]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: Figures show the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [33]. 3. Asphalt Spot Market - Figures show the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [36]. 4. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: Figures show the historical asphalt profit trends from 2019 - 2025 [38]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread: Figures show the historical coking - asphalt profit spread trends from 2020 - 2025 [41]. - Supply - Side Analysis - Shipment Volume: Figures show the historical weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [45]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: Figures show the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory trends from 2021 - 2025 [47]. - Production: Figures show the historical weekly and monthly asphalt production trends from 2019 - 2025 [50]. - Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production: Figures show the historical Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trends [53]. - Refinery Asphalt Production: Figures show the historical refinery asphalt production trends from 2019 - 2025 [56]. - Operating Rate: Figures show the historical weekly asphalt operating rate trends from 2021 - 2025 [59]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: Figures show the historical maintenance loss estimation trends from 2018 - 2025 [61]. - Inventory Analysis - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: Figures show the historical exchange warehouse receipt trends from 2019 - 2025 [64]. - Social and Factory Inventory: Figures show the historical social and factory inventory trends from 2022 - 2025 [68]. - Factory Inventory Ratio: Figures show the historical factory inventory ratio trends from 2018 - 2025 [71]. - Import - Export Analysis: Figures show the historical asphalt import and export trends from 2019 - 2025, as well as the import price spread trends of South Korean asphalt [74][77]. - Demand - Side Analysis - Petroleum Coke Production: Figures show the historical petroleum coke production trends from 2019 - 2025 [80]. - Apparent Consumption: Figures show the historical asphalt apparent consumption trends from 2019 - 2025 [83]. - Downstream Demand - Infrastructure - Related: Figures show the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion from 2019 - 2025 [86]. - Mechanical Equipment - Related: Figures show the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [90]. - Asphalt Operating Rate - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt: Figures show the historical heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate trends from 2019 - 2025 [95]. - By Use: Figures show the historical operating rate trends of construction, modified, and other types of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [98]. - Downstream Operating Conditions: Figures show the historical operating rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [100]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Figures show the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from 2024 - 2025, including production, import, export, demand, and inventory [105].