大越期货菜粕早报-20251216

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2320 - 2380. It is affected by the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. With the domestic rapeseed meal entering the off - season of supply and demand, it will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues reduce short - term exports and domestic supply [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, with Canadian rapeseed production higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, supporting commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory [12]. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is in the off - season; the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - Trading data: From December 5th to December 15th, the average trading price of soybean meal ranged from 3074 - 3138, and the trading volume was between 8.25 - 27.85 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal was between 2460 - 2510, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only small volumes on December 10th and 15th. The average price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, ranging from 589 - 628 [13]. - Price data: From December 5th to December 15th, the near - month 2601 rapeseed meal futures price was between 2355 - 2417, the main 2605 contract price was between 2317 - 2377, and the rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was between 2460 - 2510 [15]. - Warehouse receipt data: From December 4th to December 15th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were all 0 [17]. - Production and price data: Aquatic fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [35]. 5. Position Data - Not provided 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamentals: Rapeseed meal oscillated and closed up, driven by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Rapeseed meal spot demand is in the off - season, and low inventory supports the market. The Sino - Canadian trade negotiation is still uncertain, and the market is affected by soybean meal in the short term and maintains an oscillatory range [9]. - Basis: The spot price is 2510, the basis is 169, and the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [9]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 17,500 tons, a 2.78% week - on - week decrease from last week's 18,000 tons and a 20.45% year - on - year decrease from the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish [9]. - Main position: The main long positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out, which is bullish [9]. - Expectation: Rapeseed meal has returned to an oscillatory pattern due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. With the domestic rapeseed meal entering the off - season of supply and demand, it will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, and subsequent developments should be monitored [9].