Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel export licensing system in 2026 led to a lower opening of steel prices on Friday night, but prices rebounded due to the expected production cuts in energy - consuming industries. The impact of the licensing system on steel exports needs further tracking. Currently, steel mills are reducing production and inventory, and plate inventory is rising year - on - year. Considering the strengthening of basis during the decline of steel prices and the stabilization signs of coking coal in January, steel prices are expected to stabilize. Attention should be paid to the price ranges of 3000 - 3200 yuan and 3200 - 3350 yuan in May. When hot metal production drops to a low level, one can participate in the spread - widening arbitrage of the iron ore - to - steel ratio between the January and May contracts [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, iron ore futures fluctuated and declined. On the supply side, the global shipment of iron ore increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports rebounded. On the demand side, steel mills continued to cut production, hot metal output decreased, steel mill maintenance increased, steel prices fluctuated at a low level, and the profitability of steel mills declined. In terms of inventory, port inventory increased, the port clearance volume rose, and the equity inventory of steel mills decreased. Looking ahead, hot metal production of steel mills may further decline, steel prices will fluctuate at a low level, the market will gradually weaken, and the valuation of iron ore will decline. The strategy is to maintain a bearish view on iron ore futures, short the Iron Ore 2605 contract on rallies, with an operating range of 730 - 780. Arbitrage strategies recommend going long on finished products and short on iron ore, and long the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industries - Coke: Yesterday, coke futures rebounded after over - falling. The second round of price cuts in coke was implemented on December 12, and there is still an expectation of further cuts in the short term. On the supply side, the price cut range of coking coal in the Shanxi market expanded, the coke price adjustment lagged behind coking coal, coking profits were repaired, and the start - up rate decreased. On the demand side, steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, hot metal output declined, steel prices fluctuated at a low level, and there was an intention to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, coking plants, ports, and steel mills all increased inventory, and the overall inventory increased slightly from the middle level. The coke supply - demand situation weakened. The strategy is to take profit on short positions and arbitrage, and expect a short - term rebound or consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coke [7]. - Coking Coal: Yesterday, coking coal futures fluctuated and declined. On the supply side, the spot auction prices in Shanxi continued to fall, Mongolian coal prices declined, the flow - auction rate remained high, and the coal spot market became more relaxed. The coal mine output decreased slightly, and the inventory increased again. Near the end of the year, coal mine production may continue to decline; in terms of imported coal, the port inventory continued to increase, and Mongolian coal prices followed the futures down. On the demand side, steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, hot metal output declined, coking profits recovered, and the start - up rate decreased slightly. The market's restocking demand weakened. In terms of inventory, steel mills reduced inventory, while coal mines, coal washing plants, ports, coking enterprises, and ports increased inventory, and the overall inventory increased slightly from the middle level. The strategy is to take profit on short positions and arbitrage, and expect a short - term rebound or consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coking coal [7]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry - Prices and Spreads - Thread Steel: Spot prices in East China and North China remained unchanged, while in South China, it rose by 10 yuan/ton. Futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 all increased, with increases of 14 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 1 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Spot prices in East China and North China remained unchanged, while in South China, it rose by 10 yuan/ton. Futures contracts 05 and 10 increased, while contract 01 decreased by 2 yuan/ton [1]. - Cost and Profit - Cost: The price of steel billet remained unchanged at 2940 yuan/ton, the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace thread steel decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 3213 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter thread steel decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 3145 yuan/ton [1]. - Profit: The profit of East China thread steel remained unchanged at - 10 yuan/ton, the profit of North China thread steel decreased by 4 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton, and the profit of South China thread steel remained unchanged at 210 yuan/ton. The profit of East China hot - rolled coil decreased by 4 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton, the profit of North China hot - rolled coil decreased by 14 yuan/ton to - 110 yuan/ton, and the profit of South China hot - rolled coil decreased by 4 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [1]. - Production and Inventory - Production: The daily average hot metal output decreased by 3.0 tons to 229.3 tons, a decrease of 1.3%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 22.7 tons to 806.2 tons, a decrease of 2.7%. The output of thread steel decreased by 10.5 tons to 178.8 tons, a decrease of 5.6%, including a 1.2 - ton decrease in electric - arc furnace output to 27.6 tons (a 4.0% decrease) and a 9.4 - ton decrease in converter output. The output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 9.4 tons to 151.2 tons, a decrease of 5.8% [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 33.5 tons to 1332.1 tons, a decrease of 2.5%. The inventory of thread steel decreased by 24.3 tons to 479.5 tons, a decrease of 4.8%. The inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased by 3.3 tons to 397.1 tons, a decrease of 0.8% [1]. - Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume increased by 1.1 tons to 10.1 tons, an increase of 11.9%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 24.5 tons to 839.7 tons, a decrease of 2.8%. The apparent demand of thread steel decreased by 13.9 tons to 203.1 tons, a decrease of 6.4%. The apparent demand of hot - rolled coil decreased by 2.9 tons to 312.0 tons, a decrease of 0.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Prices and Spreads - Warehouse Receipt Cost: The warehouse receipt cost of various iron ore powders decreased, with the cost of Carajás fines decreasing by 11.0 yuan/ton to 772.6 yuan/ton (a 1.4% decrease), PB fines decreasing by 4.4 yuan/ton to 824.9 yuan/ton (a 0.5% decrease), Brazilian blended fines decreasing by 4.3 yuan/ton to 830.9 yuan/ton (a 0.5% decrease), and Jinbuba fines decreasing by 4.3 yuan/ton to 824.1 yuan/ton (a 0.5% decrease) [3]. - 01 Contract Basis: The basis of Carajás fines for the 01 contract decreased by 5.5 yuan/ton to - 4.4 yuan/ton (a 523.0% decrease), while the basis of PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines increased by 1.1 yuan/ton, 1.2 yuan/ton, and 1.2 yuan/ton respectively [3]. - Inter - Contract Spreads: The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 21.5 yuan/ton (a 4.4% decrease), the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1.0 yuan/ton to - 45.5 yuan/ton (a 2.2% decrease), and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 24.0 yuan/ton (a 9.1% increase) [3]. - Supply and Demand - Supply: The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 242.9 tons to 2723.4 tons, an increase of 9.8%. The global shipment volume (weekly) increased by 223.9 tons to 3592.5 tons, an increase of 6.6%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11130.9 tons, a decrease of 4.3% [3]. - Demand: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 3.1 tons to 232.3 tons, a decrease of 1.3%. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports (weekly) decreased by 7.8 tons to 319.2 tons, a decrease of 2.4%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 320.9 tons to 6234.0 tons, a decrease of 4.9%. The national monthly crude steel output decreased by 212.7 tons to 6987.0 tons, a decrease of 3.0% [3]. - Inventory - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) increased by 82.4 tons to 15431.42 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 150.5 tons to 8834.2 tons, a decrease of 1.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) increased by 1.0 days to 20.0 days, an increase of 5.3% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industries - Prices and Spreads - Coke - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1612 yuan/ton, while the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) decreased by 11 yuan/ton to 1581 yuan/ton. The 01 and 05 contracts of coke increased, with increases of 29 yuan/ton and 43 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - The 01 basis of coke decreased by 39 yuan/ton to 77 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton [7]. - Coking Coal - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1230 yuan/ton, the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) increased by 4 yuan/ton to 1139 yuan/ton. The 01 and 05 contracts of coking coal increased, with increases of 20 yuan/ton and 45 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - The 01 basis of coking coal decreased by 16 yuan/ton to 174 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply and Demand - Coke - Supply: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.6 tons to 64.0 tons, a decrease of 0.9%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 46.6 tons [7]. - Demand: The hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.1 tons to 229.2 tons, a decrease of 1.34% [7]. - Coking Coal - Supply: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3%, and the clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [7]. - Demand: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.6 tons to 64.0 tons, a decrease of 0.9%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 46.6 tons [7]. - Inventory - Coke: The total coke inventory increased by 20.8 tons to 903.8 tons, an increase of 2.4%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 10.9 tons to 87.3 tons, an increase of 14.24%, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 10.0 tons to 635.3 tons, an increase of 1.6%, and the port inventory decreased by 0.1 tons to 181.2 tons, a decrease of 0.14% [7]. - Coking Coal: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 1.1 tons to 126.5 tons, a decrease of 0.9%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 28.1 tons to 1037.3 tons, an increase of 2.8%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.6 tons to 794.7 tons, a decrease of 0.5%, and the port inventory increased by 11.0 tons to 307.5 tons, an increase of 3.7% [7].
《黑色》日报-20251216
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-12-16 02:48