《农产品》日报-20251216

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Fats and Oils Industry - Malaysian palm oil futures may fall below 4000 ringgit and test 3900 ringgit due to expected inventory growth. Domestic palm oil futures are under pressure to decline further. - CBOT soybeans and soybeans may fall due to uncertainty in bio - fuel blending quotas,利空 export data, and expected record - high Brazilian soybean production. However, domestic soybean oil inventory reduction and expected reduced imports in Q1 may support the 5 - month contract [1]. 2.2 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures declined due to increased supply prospects. Indian sugar production has increased, and the price is expected to remain bearish. Domestic sugar prices are also weakening due to increased supply [3][4]. 2.3 Corn Industry - The current grain - selling progress is fast, but the effective market circulation is limited. The price is stable in the north and weak in the north. The demand from deep - processing enterprises is slow, while feed enterprises' demand is rising. The futures price decline is limited [5]. 2.4 Egg Industry - Egg prices are rising slightly, leading to farmers' reluctance to sell. The number of laying hens is expected to decline slowly, but the supply remains high. Demand is weak, and egg prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. 2.5 Pig Industry - Spot prices are stable, and the southern curing demand is increasing. However, there is uncertainty in the December - January market due to the pandemic and secondary fattening. The supply is still large, and the price is hard to improve [10]. 2.6 Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures rose due to a weak dollar and a rebound in the US stock market. US cotton is in a volatile market. Domestically, the expected decline in Xinjiang's planting area in the next year is optimistic in the long - term, but the downstream industry is weak [14]. 2.7 Meal and Soybean Industry - US soybeans are in a weak and volatile market due to lack of trading highlights and expected supply pressure from South America. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and the futures price is expected to be weak [17]. 2.8 Red Date Industry - The 2025/2026 Xinjiang red date production is less affected than expected, but there is pressure from new - product listing and old - stock clearance. The cost may support the price, and future consumption is to be observed [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fats and Oils Industry - Price Changes: On December 15, compared with December 12, soybean oil spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.58%, palm oil spot price in Guangdong decreased by 0.93%, and rapeseed oil spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.50%. - Inventory and Basis: Soybean oil inventory decreased by nearly 60,000 tons, and the 5 - month contract basis was supported. Palm oil and rapeseed oil had corresponding basis and inventory changes [1]. 3.2 Sugar Industry - Price and Basis: On December 15, compared with the previous value, sugar futures prices decreased, and spot prices in Nanning and Kunming also declined. The basis of Nanning and Kunming decreased. - Industry Data: National and Guangxi sugar production and sales decreased year - on - year, and the national sugar sales rate decreased [3]. 3.3 Corn Industry - Price and Basis: On December 15, compared with the previous value, corn futures prices decreased, and the basis increased. Corn starch futures prices decreased, and the basis increased. - Industry Data: The number of vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased significantly, and the inventory of corn and corn starch decreased [5]. 3.4 Egg Industry - Price Changes: On December 15, compared with the previous value, egg futures prices increased, and the spot price in the production area decreased. The basis decreased significantly. - Industry Data: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings decreased, and the price of culled chickens increased. The inventory in the production and circulation links changed [8]. 3.5 Pig Industry - Price and Basis: On December 15, compared with the previous value, pig futures prices had small changes, and the basis increased. Spot prices in different regions had different changes. - Industry Data: Slaughter volume decreased slightly, and the self - breeding and purchased piglet breeding profits increased [10]. 3.6 Cotton Industry - Price and Basis: On December 15, compared with the previous value, cotton futures prices increased, and spot prices decreased slightly. The basis decreased. - Industry Data: Inventory increased, import volume decreased, and textile export data had different changes [14]. 3.7 Meal and Soybean Industry - Price and Basis: On December 15, compared with the previous value, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean prices had corresponding changes, and the basis also changed. - Industry Data: The import crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans and Canadian rapeseed had different changes [17]. 3.8 Red Date Industry - Price and Basis: On December 15, compared with the previous value, red date futures prices increased, and spot prices remained stable. The basis decreased. - Industry Data: The 2025/2026 Xinjiang red date production decreased by 15% compared with normal years [19].