《有色》日报-20251216

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, while futures prices opened high and closed low. The market is expected to remain in a weak supply - demand situation in December. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton, with potential to reach 10000 yuan/ton if production drops significantly, or fall to 7500 yuan/ton under certain negative scenarios. Attention should be paid to position management [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures prices are oscillating higher. There is a contradiction between the strong futures market and weak spot demand. The current price is in a high - level oscillation. Future trends depend on the extent of production cuts. The trading strategy for the main contract (now 2605) is to wait and see [3]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, but Indonesian exports increased in November, causing tin prices to decline. However, considering the strong fundamentals, tin prices are expected to remain strong within the year. It is recommended to hold long positions and consider buying on dips [5]. Nickel - The nickel market is under fundamental pressure. Macro factors have limited impact on nickel prices. The Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price has fallen, and domestic inventory is increasing rapidly. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 110000 - 118000 yuan/ton [7]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply pressure is slightly relieved, and nickel - iron prices have stopped falling, providing cost support. However, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory reduction is insufficient. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 12200 - 12800 yuan/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices rose overall. The fundamentals are in a situation of strong supply and demand. The market is affected by news such as the slow resumption of production of large mines. The price may be strong in the short - term under the influence of capital sentiment, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand improvement in the off - season [10]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina supply is in an oversupply situation, with high inventory suppressing prices. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, with the main contract reference range of 2450 - 2700 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short - term but may face a pullback. The main contract of Shanghai Aluminum is expected to oscillate between 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton [12]. Zinc - Zinc prices are oscillating. The supply side is gradually shifting from loose to tight, and demand has shown structural improvement. The short - term Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of TC and changes in refined zinc inventory, with the main contract support at 23000 - 23200 yuan/ton [15]. Copper - Copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The high price is driven by supply - inventory imbalance and macro factors. The supply side may face tightness, and the demand is being suppressed. The price is expected to have limited downside space, with the main contract support at 90000 - 91000 yuan/ton [16]. Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices are oscillating strongly, with strong cost support but weak demand. The price is expected to oscillate narrowly at a high level, with the main contract reference range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the improvement in scrap aluminum supply and downstream purchasing rhythm [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Spot Prices and Basis: The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained stable on December 12 compared to December 11, while the basis decreased significantly. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 16.39% [1]. - Monthly Spreads: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 150.00% [1]. - Fundamental Data: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, and the national operating rate decreased by 4.84%. Organic silicon DMC production increased by 3.82%, while polysilicon production decreased by 14.48% [1]. - Inventory Changes: Most inventories increased slightly on a weekly or daily basis, such as the Xinjiang factory - level inventory increasing by 3.39% on a weekly basis [1]. Polysilicon - Spot Prices and Basis: The average prices of N - type polysilicon products remained stable, while the N - type material basis decreased by 41.13% [3]. - Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads: The main contract of polysilicon futures rose by 2.56%. The spreads between different contracts showed significant fluctuations, such as the near - month to the first - continuous contract spread decreasing by 1206.25% [3]. - Fundamental Data: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 1.67%, and monthly polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%. Polysilicon imports increased by 11.96%, and exports decreased by 27.99% [3]. - Inventory Changes: Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.69%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 9.39% [3]. Tin - Spot Prices and Basis: SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin prices decreased by 1.76% on December 16 compared to the previous value, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 22.73% [5]. - Import - Export Parity and Ratios: The import loss decreased by 8.14%, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.92 [5]. - Monthly Spreads: The spreads between different contracts showed different changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 18.06% [5]. - Fundamental Data: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%. Refined tin imports decreased by 58.55%, and exports decreased by 15.33% [5]. - Inventory Changes: SHEF inventory increased by 7.66%, and social inventory increased by 5.59% [5]. Nickel - Prices and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and 1 Jinchuan nickel prices decreased by 0.72% and 0.70% respectively. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 1.92% [7]. - Electrolytic Nickel Production Costs: The production cost of integrated MHP - based electrolytic nickel increased by 0.19%, while that of integrated high - grade nickel matte - based electrolytic nickel decreased by 3.60% [7]. - Monthly Spreads: The spreads between different contracts showed small changes, such as the 2602 - 2603 spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory: China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and imports decreased by 65.66%. SHFE inventory increased by 5.10%, and social inventory increased by 3.73% [7]. Stainless Steel - Prices and Basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained stable, while that of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39%. The spot - futures price difference increased by 20.99% [8]. - Raw Material Prices: The prices of most raw materials remained stable, such as the average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) remaining at 57 US dollars/wet ton [8]. - Monthly Spreads: The spreads between different contracts changed slightly, such as the 2602 - 2603 spread decreasing by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamental Data: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72%, and Indonesia's production increased by 0.36%. Stainless steel imports increased by 3.18%, and exports decreased by 14.43% [8]. - Inventory Changes: The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 0.69%, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 0.30% [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Prices and Basis: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices increased by 0.69% and 0.71% respectively. The basis increased by 0.69% [10]. - Monthly Spreads: The spreads between different contracts showed different changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread increasing by 120 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamental Data: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, and demand increased by 5.11%. In October, imports increased by 21.86%, and exports increased by 63.05% [10]. - Inventory Changes: In November, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 23.36%, the downstream inventory decreased by 21.13%, and the smelter inventory decreased by 27.19% [10]. Aluminum and Alumina - Prices and Spreads: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 1.54%, and the alumina average price remained stable. The electrolytic aluminum import loss decreased by 1977 yuan/ton [12]. - Monthly Spreads: The spreads between different aluminum contracts showed various changes, such as the AL 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 35 yuan/ton [12]. - Fundamental Data: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82%, and overseas production decreased by 3.50%. In October, electrolytic aluminum imports increased by 0.61%, and exports decreased by 15.18% [12]. - Inventory Changes: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.17%, and the aluminum rod social inventory increased by 8.58% [12]. Zinc - Prices and Basis: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.97%, and the premium increased by 5 yuan/ton [15]. - Import - Export Parity and Ratios: The import loss decreased by 813.46 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.03 [15]. - Monthly Spreads: The spreads between different contracts showed different changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 10 yuan/ton [15]. - Fundamental Data: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%. In October, imports decreased by 16.94%, and exports increased by 243.79% [15]. - Inventory Changes: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 7.57%, and LME inventory increased by 4.12% [15]. Copper - Prices and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 1.42%, and the premium increased by 80 yuan/ton [16]. - Monthly Spreads: The spreads between different contracts changed, such as the 2602 - 2603 spread decreasing by 30 yuan/ton [16]. - Fundamental Data: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and in October, imports decreased by 15.61%. The import copper concentrate index decreased by 0.51% [16]. - Inventory Changes: The domestic social inventory increased by 2.62%, the bonded - area inventory decreased by 2.58%, and the SHFE inventory increased by 0.54% [16]. Aluminum Alloy - Prices and Spreads: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price decreased by 0.69%. The spreads between different contracts showed different changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 25 yuan/ton [18]. - Fundamental Data: In November, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.74%, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.84%. In October, imports decreased by 7.06%, and exports increased by 31.49% [18]. - Inventory Changes: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.08% [18].