大越期货原油早报-20251216

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical situation has a significant impact on oil prices. The threat of confiscating oil tankers provided some support to oil prices in the first half of the night, but the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement led to a sharp decline in oil prices in the second half of the night. In the absence of bullish stimuli, oil prices are gradually declining. Attention should be paid to the progress of peace talks, as there may be last - minute reversals that could reignite geopolitical concerns. The SC2601 is expected to trade in the range of 428 - 438, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. - In the short term, the market is waiting for geopolitical bullish factors, while in the medium to long term, there is a risk of oversupply in the crude oil market [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: US pressure has almost paralyzed Venezuela's oil exports, with only Chevron - chartered tankers allowed to transport Venezuelan crude to the US. Trump had a "very good conversation" with European leaders about the Russia - Ukraine conflict and believes a peace agreement is closer than ever. The EU plans to sanction 40 Russian "shadow fleet" vessels and their supporters [3]. - Basis: On December 15, the spot price of Oman crude was $61.62 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $60.53 per barrel. The basis was 26.02 yuan/barrel, indicating that the spot price was higher than the futures price [3]. - Inventory: For the week ending December 5, the US API crude inventory decreased by 4.779 million barrels (expected: - 1.75 million barrels), and the EIA inventory decreased by 1.812 million barrels (expected: - 2.31 million barrels). The Cushing area inventory increased by 0.308 million barrels. As of December 15, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels [3]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the price was below the moving average [3]. - Main Position: As of November 18, the long positions of WTI crude oil main contracts increased; as of December 9, the long positions of Brent crude oil main contracts decreased [3]. - Expectation: The SC2601 is expected to trade in the range of 428 - 438, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Russia - Ukraine Peace Talks: US special envoys proposed an unprecedented agreement to Ukraine's President Zelensky in Berlin. Trump believes a peace agreement is closer than ever, but Moscow has not agreed to any changes discussed in Germany. The US is also pressing Ukraine to withdraw troops from the Donetsk region, which may cause strong opposition in Ukraine [5]. - Venezuelan Oil Exports: After the US seized a tanker carrying Venezuelan crude, a tanker transporting Russian naphtha for PDVSA and at least four super - tankers originally planned to load Venezuelan crude turned around. US pressure has almost paralyzed Venezuelan oil exports, except for Chevron - chartered tankers [5]. - EU Sanctions: The EU plans to impose new sanctions on 40 Russian "shadow fleet" vessels and their supporters to cut off Russia's funding for the war [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: Sanctions against Russia and OPEC+ suspending production increases in the first quarter of next year [6]. - Bearish Factors: Easing of the Middle - East situation, consistent expectations of crude oil oversupply among institutions, and progress in the US - Russia peace agreement negotiations [6]. - Market Driver: In the short term, waiting for geopolitical bullish factors; in the medium to long term, facing the risk of oversupply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, and Oman crude decreased by - 0.92%, - 1.08%, and - 0.79% respectively, while the settlement price of SC crude increased by 0.05% [7]. - Spot Market: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude, and Dubai crude decreased by - 1.77%, - 1.08%, - 0.69%, and - 0.58% respectively, while the price of Shengli crude decreased by - 0.03% [9]. - Inventory Data: API inventory decreased by 4.779 million barrels for the week ending December 5; EIA inventory decreased by 1.812 million barrels for the same period [3]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude: As of November 18, the net long position increased by 8,792 [3][15]. - Brent Crude: As of December 9, the net long position decreased by 32,310 [3][17].