大越期货豆粕早报-20251216

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For Bean Meal (M2605): The price is expected to oscillate between 2720 and 2780. The short - term outlook is neutral. Although China's soybean purchases support the short - term US soybean market, uncertainties in purchase volume and favorable South American planting weather suppress the US soybean prices. With a high arrival volume of imported Brazilian soybeans in China, domestic bean meal is likely to be weakly oscillating in the short term under the influence of US soybeans [9]. - For Soybeans (A2601): The price is predicted to fluctuate between 4100 and 4200. The short - term view is neutral. China's soybean purchases support the short - term US soybean market, but uncertainties in purchase volume and good South American weather limit the upside. The cost - effectiveness of domestic soybeans against imports supports the price floor, while high import volumes and expected domestic soybean production growth restrict the upward potential [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Bean Meal (M2605): Oscillating between 2720 - 2780, influenced by US soybean trends, demand, and basis. The short - term outlook is neutral, with factors like inventory and position affecting the market [9]. - Soybeans (A2601): Fluctuating between 4100 - 4200, affected by US soybean trends, cost - effectiveness, and domestic supply - demand. The short - term view is neutral [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but uncertainties in China's purchase volume and US soybean weather remain. The US market is strongly oscillating above the 1000 - point mark. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while oil mill soybean inventories remained high. With normal South American soybean planting weather, bean meal is back in the oscillating range. - Reduced domestic pig - farming profits lead to low expectations for pig restocking. The increasing bean meal demand in December supports price expectations, and the interaction between US soybean trends and demand brings bean meal back to the oscillating pattern. - High domestic oil mill bean meal inventories, possible US soybean weather speculation, and the Sino - US trade agreement keep bean meal oscillating in the short term, pending clear US soybean yields and further Sino - US trade negotiation results [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns Bean Meal - Positive Factors: The preliminary Sino - US trade agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; oil mill bean meal inventories are not under pressure; there are uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - growing areas [14]. - Negative Factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in December; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest [15]. Soybeans - Positive Factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; there are expectations of increasing domestic soybean demand [16]. - Negative Factors: Brazil is expected to have a bumper soybean harvest, and China is increasing its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in domestic soybean production restricts price expectations [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2015 - 2024, data on harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are presented, showing the long - term supply - demand situation of global soybeans [33]. - Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2015 - 2024, data on harvest area, initial inventory, production, import volume, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are provided, reflecting the long - term supply - demand situation of domestic soybeans [34]. 3.5 Position Data - Bean Meal: The main short positions decreased, and capital flowed in [9]. - Soybeans: The main short positions decreased, and capital flowed out [11]. 3.6 Other Data Highlights - Trading Volume and Price: Data on bean meal and soybean futures and spot prices from December 5 - 15, 2025, are presented, including trading volume, average price, and basis [17][19]. - Warehouse Receipts: Data on bean meal, soybean (bean one and bean two) warehouse receipts from December 4 - 15, 2025, are shown, including changes compared to the previous day [21]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: Information on the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2015 - 2026 is provided, including sowing rate, emergence rate, excellent - good rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, leaf - falling rate, and harvest rate [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45]. - USDA Supply - Demand Reports: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from May - December 2025 show data on planting area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, new - bean export, crushing, and soybean production in Brazil and Argentina [46]. - Import and Inventory: The monthly arrival volume of imported soybeans from 2020 - 2025 is presented, along with information on oil mill soybean and bean meal inventories, unexecuted contracts, and crushing volume [49][50][52][54]. - Pig - Related Data: Data on pig inventory, price, breeding profit, and secondary fattening cost are provided, showing the current situation of the pig - farming industry [58][60][62][64].