大越期货甲醇周报-20251216

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The later methanol regional market will show a differentiated pattern with stronger sales areas, weaker northwest regions, and post - increase fluctuations in ports. The upward trend in the inland is supported by the incremental demand for olefins and freight, while the port trend awaits new variables such as shipping schedules and inventory. [5] - In the inland, the load of the new olefin plant of Lianhong has increased to about 80%. Although the local market's upward rhythm is suppressed by port and low - cost logistics supplies in the short term, the incremental demand for olefins in southern Shandong is clear, so the upward trend of local methanol remains unchanged. Snowy weather has led to an increase in freight, which supports the arrival price in northern Shandong. Therefore, methanol in the sales areas is expected to continue to be strong. [5] - In the production areas, affected by the winter snow and its impact on transportation, methanol plants in the production areas maintain low - inventory operations. Coupled with the weakening of olefin demand after the resumption of the Jiutai methanol plant and the increase in cross - regional freight, the methanol price in the northwest is expected to continue to be weak. [5] - In the ports, high inventory and weak demand still suppress the upside, but the expected reduction in overseas arrivals in January also supports the bottom. Given the significant increase in port prices on Thursday this week, the port methanol market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate after the increase next week, waiting for new variable guidance. Attention should be paid to the actual arrival rhythm of port shipping schedules and corresponding inventory changes. [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - The later methanol market will show a differentiated pattern. The inland will be strong due to olefin demand and freight, the northwest will be weak, and the ports will fluctuate after an increase. [5] 3.2 Fundamental Data - Domestic Methanol Spot Price: Prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Jiangsu increased by 0.34%, while that in Hebei decreased by 1.84% and in Inner Mongolia by 2.12%. [6] - Methanol Basis: The spot price increased by 0.34%, while the futures price decreased by 0.48%. The basis also changed during the week. [8] - Methanol Production Profits by Process: Coal - to - methanol profit increased by 50, natural gas - to - methanol profit remained at - 40, and coke oven gas - to - methanol profit increased by 318. [10] - Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load: The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and the northwest load decreased by 3.55% to 81.54%. [12] - Outer - Disk Methanol Price and Spread: The CFR China price increased by 0.83%, and the CFR Southeast Asia price remained unchanged. The spread also changed. [15] - Methanol Import Spread: The import cost increased by 0.64%, and the import spread decreased by 7. [18] - Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged during the week. [25] - Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products: Formaldehyde production profit increased by 18, dimethyl ether production profit increased by 57, and acetic acid production profit decreased by 4. The loads of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid also changed to different extents. [26][28][33] - MTO Production Profit and Load: The MTO production profit decreased by 22, and the MTO device load decreased. [37] - Methanol Port Inventory: The inventory in East China decreased by 8.85, and that in South China decreased by 0.99. [38] - Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts: The warehouse receipts increased by 13.82%, and the effective forecasts remained unchanged. [42] 3.3 Maintenance Status - Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance: Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, including those in the northwest, east, southwest, and northeast regions, with different maintenance start and end dates and loss amounts. [45] - Overseas Methanol Device Operation: Overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar, and other countries have different operation statuses, including normal operation, restarting, and planned or unplanned maintenance. [46] - Olefin Device Operation: Olefin plants in different regions such as the northwest, east, central, and northeast have different operation statuses, including normal operation, maintenance, and planned production. [47]