合成橡胶产业日报-20251216

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply is sufficient and production profit is high, but downstream price - pressing is firm, resulting in high pressure on the spot market. It is expected that the inventories of both production and trading enterprises will increase slightly in the short term. - The resumption of production by previously - overhauled enterprises has driven the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises to increase month - on - month. However, entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises is slow, and most enterprises are in a state of flexible production control, which limits the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. With the continuous increase in finished product inventory, there may be individual enterprises for overhaul or production reduction in the future. - The br2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,600 - 11,000 yuan/ton in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 85 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 109,301 lots. - The 2 - 3 spread of synthetic rubber is 5 yuan/ton, and the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 4,560 tons. [2] 3.2. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies in different regions range from 10,700 to 10,950 yuan/ton, with price changes of 50 - 100 yuan/ton. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 130 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 35 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3. Upstream Situation - The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, naphtha, Northeast Asian ethylene, and butadiene have different degrees of change. - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 71.17%. The port inventory of butadiene has decreased by 5,200 tons. - The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 55.9%, with a decrease of 0.21 percentage points. [2] 3.4. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of full - steel tires is 590,000 pieces, and that of semi - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces. - The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 40.58 days, and those of semi - steel tires are 45.51 days. - As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 70.14%, a month - on - month increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 64.55%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. [2] 3.5. Industry News - The resumption of production by previously - overhauled enterprises has driven the capacity utilization rate. - In November, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.75 million tons (- 5.44%) and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.27 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.53 percentage points. - As of December 11, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 million tons (- 1.18%). [2]