瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20251216

Market Data Summary - The closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract was 13,945 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the closing price of the main cotton yarn futures contract was 20,055 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was -148,481 lots, an increase of 4,769 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was -606 lots, an increase of 137 lots [2]. - The main contract position of cotton was 713,587 lots, an increase of 366,462 lots; the main contract position of cotton yarn was 22,088 lots, an increase of 457 lots [2]. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 3,199, an increase of 33; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 70, unchanged [2]. - The China Cotton Price Index CCIndex:3128B was 15,130 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index FCIndexM:1% tariff was 12,846 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2]. - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2]. - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,700 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide was 850,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons [2]. - The import volume of cotton was 90,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the import volume of cotton yarn was 140,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2]. - The import cotton profit was 1,187 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide was 2.9306 million tons, an increase of 1.9089 million tons [2]. - The inventory days of yarn were 26.12 days, an increase of 1.27 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 31.97 days, an increase of 0.85 days [2]. - The monthly output of cloth was 2.62 billion meters, a decrease of 0.18 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.001 million tons, a decrease of 0.073 million tons [2]. - The export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 110,034,804,300 US dollars, a decrease of 14,497,665,700 US dollars; the export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 112,584,189,200 US dollars, a decrease of 7,080,970,800 US dollars [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 2.09%, a decrease of 11.87%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton was 13.96%, an increase of 2.38% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 6.7%, an increase of 1.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 6.96%, an increase of 0.43% [2]. Industry News - As of December 14, 2025, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton was 23,804,919 bales, totaling 5.373573 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 5.273822 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.89% [2]. - ICE cotton futures closed higher on Monday, supported by a weak US dollar and speculative buying. The March cotton futures contract rose 0.11 cents, or 0.17%, to settle at 63.94 cents per pound [2]. Core View - On the supply side, the ginning mill's lint processing volume continues to increase, and the commercial inventory shows a seasonal growth trend. In terms of imports, the import cotton ports basically have more outflows than inflows, but the inventory in major import cotton ports has increased for 10 consecutive weeks, reaching 390,300 tons as of December 11, a 5 - month high [2]. - On the demand side, the peak - season procurement of downstream textile enterprises has ended, but the orders for medium - and high - count yarns are stable. They mostly choose to replenish inventory as needed, and with the support of potential long - term benefits, the short - term cotton price center may continue to rise [2].