建信期货生猪日报-20251217

Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report - Report Date: December 17, 2025 - Industry: Pig Farming 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increasing trend. There is dual supply pressure due to concentrated second - fattening and pressure - keeping in October and continuous capacity release, which continues to put pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts. However, the price decline compared to the same period last year is large, and recent northern epidemics have intensified, triggering a low - level rebound sentiment, increasing the frequency of bottom oscillations. - On the spot market, both supply and demand are increasing. Second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see mode, with weak support for prices. Spot prices are oscillating strongly due to the demand for curing and enema [7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions 3.1.1 Market Conditions - Futures: On the 16th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened flat, then bottomed out and rebounded, fluctuating higher, closing in the positive territory. The highest was 11360 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11260 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11350 yuan/ton, up 0.22% from the previous day. The total position of the index increased by 1459 lots to 350618 lots [6]. - Spot: On the 16th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.52 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. 3.1.2 Market Analysis - Supply: In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increasing trend until the first half of next year. The utilization rate of second - fattening pens is relatively high, slightly higher than the same period last year, increasing the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In December, the planned slaughter of sample breeding enterprises is 27.72 million heads, with a monthly planned increase of 4.64%. Currently, the overall completion progress of many regional groups is slightly slow [7]. - Demand: Currently, second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see mode. There may still be a small amount of rolling restocking demand in December. With the continuous cooling of the weather, the demand for curing and enema is increasing, and terminal consumer demand is rising. The orders of slaughtering enterprises are increasing, which significantly supports the slaughter volume. On December 16th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 190,800 heads, down 300 heads from the previous day, up 8600 heads week - on - week, and up 24,000 heads month - on - month [7]. - Policy: China imposes anti - dumping duties on imported related pork and pork by - products from the EU, but the impact is very limited due to the extremely low proportion compared to domestic consumption [7]. 3.2 Data Overview - November actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly planned increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% [13]. - As of December 11th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising was - 146 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 11.5 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 264 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5.6 yuan/head [13]. - As of December 11th, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - raising was 12.09 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 yuan/kg. The expected cost of purchasing piglets for fattening to 125 kg and then selling was 11.41 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 yuan/kg [13]. - In the week ending December 11th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 129.63 kg, a decrease of 0.19 kg from the previous week. The proportion of pigs under 90 kg in slaughter increased by 0.38% to 5.43% compared with the previous week, and the proportion of pigs over 150 kg was close to the same as the previous week at 6.9% [13].