建信期货多晶硅日报-20251217

Report Date - The report date is December 17, 2025 [2] Market Performance - The price of the main polycrystalline silicon contract opened high and closed low. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 58,600 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.48%. The trading volume was 276,948 lots, and the open interest was 148,018 lots, a net increase of 5,174 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 increased by 6,072 lots, and the net short positions of the top 20 increased by 3,077 lots [4] Spot Price - The transaction price range of n-type polysilicon re-feeding material was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [4] Market Outlook - The fundamentals are weak, but the main line of the market game lies in the more policy imagination space provided by the state reserve platform. Long funds are more sensitive. Unconfirmed news says that the production capacity will be reduced from 3.2 million tons to less than 1.5 million tons. The report predicts that the annual demand will be less than 1.2 million tons, and the production capacity will be effectively utilized. However, the news is unconfirmed and there are no specific details. It is expected that the price center will move up significantly, but in the short term, it is still facing the negative feedback of weak and further shrinking downstream demand to drive the spot price to break through 60,000 yuan. The futures price has continuously risen and then fallen, and it is expected to run cautiously and strongly [4] Market News - On December 16, the number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts was 3,640 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. completed its registration, marking the official launch of the "polysilicon production capacity integration and acquisition platform" long - awaited in the photovoltaic industry. The platform plans to adopt an innovative "two - legged approach" model, implementing a dual - track model of "debt - assumption acquisition + flexible utilization of production capacity" to operate through a market - oriented and legalized mechanism [5]