建信期货工业硅日报-20251217

Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report is dated December 17, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - The Energy and Chemical Research Team includes researchers such as Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), and Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] 3. Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated. The SI2605 contract price was 8,365 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.59%. The trading volume was 219,672 lots, the open interest was 202,263 lots, with a net increase of 1,514 lots. The top twenty long positions had a net decrease of 1,272 lots, and the short positions had a net increase of 753 lots [4] - Spot prices remained stable. The Sichuan 553 grade was priced at 9,300 yuan/ton, the Yunnan 553 grade at 9,100 yuan/ton; the Sichuan 421 grade was 9,900 yuan/ton, the Xinjiang 421 grade was 9,400 yuan/ton, and the Inner Mongolia 421 grade was 9,500 yuan/ton [4] Outlook - Spot prices remained stable, and the weekly production was close to the seasonal low of about 82,000 tons. If the polysilicon storage platform significantly reduces production capacity/output, it would be an obvious negative factor for the demand side of industrial silicon. The weekly operating rate of organic silicon was 69.56%, a decrease of 4.73 percentage points from the previous week. The widening basis limited the downside space, but the resistance to rebound was also obvious. Attention should be paid to the resistance around 8,500 yuan/ton [4] 4. Market News - On December 16, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 8,815 lots, an increase of 72 lots from the previous trading day [5] - In the second week of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 446,400 tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.22% and a year-on-year increase of 30.40% [5] - The organic silicon DMC market remained stable, with the current DMC quotation ranging from 13,500 to 14,000 yuan/ton. After the price increase of major organic silicon products, the new order transactions of enterprises were average, and the enterprise inventory pressure was not large. The market was expected to operate stably in the short term [5] - The overall spot price of polysilicon stabilized, and enterprises were determined to hold prices, with individual enterprise quotations rising. The downstream procurement willingness for polysilicon was low, and no short - term increase in demand was expected. The polysilicon inventory continued to increase slowly, and the inventory pressure further inhibited the trading activity in the spot market. The spot transaction price of polysilicon was expected to remain stable in the short term [5]