《黑色》日报-20251217

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][2][5][6] 2. Core Views of the Reports - Steel Industry: Steel prices continue the low - level rebound trend. The basis of rebar is slightly stronger, while that of hot - rolled coil is weaker. Coke and coking coal prices may affect steel price stability. Steel mills are reducing production and inventory, but the inventory of plates is rising year - on - year. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of the steel export licensing system on export expectations. When the hot metal production drops to a low level, one can participate in the expansion of the rebar - iron ore ratio of the January and May contracts [2] - Iron Ore Industry: The iron ore futures rebounded in a volatile manner. The global shipment volume of iron ore increased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports rebounded. Steel mills continued to cut production, hot metal production decreased, and the profitability of steel mills declined. The iron ore port inventory increased, and the inventory of steel mills' equity ore decreased. It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract of iron ore at low prices and conduct a positive spread arbitrage between the January and May contracts of iron ore [5] - Coke Industry: Coke futures rebounded after over - falling. The second round of price cuts for coke was implemented on December 12th, and there is still an expectation of further cuts in the short term. The supply side shows that the price reduction range of coking coal in the Shanxi market has expanded, and coking profits have been slightly repaired. The demand side indicates that steel mills are increasing maintenance due to losses, and the hot metal production has declined. The inventory of coke has increased in coking plants, ports, and steel mills, and the supply - demand situation has weakened. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions, bet on short - term rebound expectations, or conduct a reverse spread arbitrage between the January and May contracts of coke [6] - Coking Coal Industry: Coking coal futures rebounded after over - falling. The spot price in Shanxi continued to fall, and the Mongolian coal price decreased. The supply side shows that coal mine shipments have worsened, daily production has slightly declined, and coal mines are accumulating inventory again. The demand side indicates that steel mills are increasing maintenance due to losses, and the demand for replenishment is weak. The inventory has increased in steel mills, coal mines, washing plants, ports, coking enterprises, and ports. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions, bet on short - term rebound expectations, or conduct a reverse spread arbitrage between the January and May contracts of coking coal [6] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry - Steel Prices and Spreads: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices showed different trends, with some prices increasing and some remaining stable. The profit of steel products showed a downward trend, and the cost of some steel products decreased slightly [2] - Supply: The daily average hot metal production, the output of five major steel products, rebar production, and hot - rolled coil production all decreased. The output of electric - arc furnace rebar and converter rebar also declined [2] - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coil all decreased [2] - Trading and Demand: The trading volume of building materials increased, but the apparent demand for five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coil decreased [2] Iron Ore Industry - Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads: The warehouse receipt cost of various iron ore powders increased slightly, and the basis and spreads of some contracts changed [5] - Supply: The weekly global shipment volume and the 45 - port arrival volume of iron ore increased, but the monthly national import volume decreased [5] - Demand: The weekly daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills, the 45 - port daily average desilting volume, the monthly national pig iron production, and the monthly national crude steel production all decreased [5] - Inventory Changes: The 45 - port inventory decreased slightly, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory decreased, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased [5] Coke Industry - Coke - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices of some coke varieties remained stable, and the basis and spreads of some contracts changed. The coking profit decreased [6] - Supply: The weekly daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased, while that of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [6] - Demand: The weekly hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased [6] - Inventory Changes: The total coke inventory, the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants, and the 247 - steel - mill coke inventory increased, while the port inventory decreased slightly [6] - Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes: The coke supply - demand gap increased [6] Coking Coal Industry - Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices of some coking coal varieties remained stable, and the basis and spreads of some contracts changed. The profit of sample coal mines decreased [6] - Supply: The weekly raw coal production and clean coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased slightly [6] - Demand: The weekly daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased, while that of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [6] - Inventory Changes: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased, the 247 - steel - mill coking coal inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased [6]