《能源化工》日报-20251217

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Market is in a short - term stalemate between bulls and bears. The price of rubber is expected to continue to fluctuate within the range of 15000 - 15500 [1]. Pure Benzene - Short - term supply and demand of pure benzene is weak, and the cost - end crude oil support is weak. But with the confirmation of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance plan, the downside space of pure benzene is limited. BZ2603 may fluctuate within the range of 5300 - 5600 [3]. Styrene - The supply - demand side of styrene remains tight. The port inventory continues to decline. However, the downstream resistance to high prices is strong, and the follow - up of procurement is weak. The mid - term supply - demand expectation is weak, and the cost - end support is limited. EB02 may fluctuate within the range of 6400 - 6700 in the short term [3]. Urea - The futures market fluctuates and closes higher, and the spot market remains weakly stable. The release of India's tender may ease the bearish pressure. Supply is at a high level, and demand is suppressed in the short term. The urea price may fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the 1600 - 1630 range [4]. Crude Oil - International crude oil prices have fallen sharply. The supply - demand relationship is in a loose pattern. Brent oil should pay attention to the support at the annual low of 58.11 US dollars per barrel [5]. Methanol - The futures market fluctuates narrowly. The port is expected to be weak in the near term, while the inland supply and demand are both increasing. The 05 contract can be considered to go long at low prices after the reduction of shipments [7][9]. Polyolefins - The upstream of polyethylene continues to reduce prices for sales, and the demand has weakened after reaching the peak. PP shows an increase in both supply and demand. The overall valuation is low, and the expectation of improvement in the 05 balance is strengthened. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of the industry chain after the macro - economic improvement [14]. LPG - No clear overall view is summarized in the text, but price, inventory, and开工率 data are provided [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash has an excess supply situation, and the price is in a downward trend. After a technical rebound, short - selling opportunities can be considered. Glass has short - term rigid demand support, but the medium - and long - term market is under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [19]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda demand is weakly supported, and the price is expected to run weakly. PVC supply pressure remains, demand is sluggish, but export orders are good. The price is not optimistic, and short - selling can be considered after a rebound [20]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX short - term upward drive is insufficient, and it may fluctuate within the range of 6600 - 7000. PTA short - term absolute price drive is limited, and it may fluctuate within the range of 4500 - 4800. Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Short - fiber absolute price drive is limited, following raw material fluctuations. Polyester bottle - chip processing fees are strong in the short term [21]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Natural Rubber - Spot Prices and Basis: The price of SCRWF in Shanghai decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 14900 yuan/ton, and the full - cream basis decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 270 yuan/ton [1]. - Monthly Spreads: The 9 - 1, 1 - 5, and 5 - 9 spreads remained unchanged [1]. - Production and Consumption Data: In October, Thailand's production decreased by 1.40 to 478.60, Indonesia's production decreased by 2.90 to 186.10, India's production increased by 4.40 to 89.40, and China's production decreased by 7.70 to 113.50 [1]. - Inventory Changes: Bonded area inventory increased by 10129 to 498888, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in SHFE increased by 2218 to 59573 [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Upstream Prices and Spreads: Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 1.64 to 58.92 US dollars per barrel, and CFR China pure benzene decreased by 1 to 536 US dollars per ton [3]. - Benzene and Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads: Styrene in East China spot price remained unchanged at 6620 yuan/ton, and EB03 - BZ03 increased by 22 to 1121 [3]. - Downstream Cash Flows: Caprolactam cash flow (single product) increased by 15 to - 335 [3]. - Inventory: Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports remained unchanged at 26000 tons, and styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 12100 tons to 134700 tons [3]. Urea - Futures Prices and Spreads: The 01 contract of urea decreased by 8 to 1630 yuan/10 tons, and the 01 - 05 contract spread increased by 9 to - 43 [4]. - Supply and Demand: Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.11 to 19.90 million tons, and factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 5.63 to 123.42 million tons [4]. Crude Oil - Prices and Spreads: Brent decreased by 1.64 to 58.92 US dollars per barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread decreased by 0.09 to 3.65 [5]. - Refined Oil Prices and Spreads: NYM RBOB decreased by 5.14 to 168.09 US cents per gallon [5]. - Refined Oil Crack Spreads: US gasoline crack spread decreased by 0.61 to 15.33 US dollars per barrel [5]. Methanol - Prices and Spreads: MA2601 increased by 5 to 2079 yuan/ton, and the太仓 - 内蒙北线 regional spread increased by 13 to 145 [7]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.85 to 35.283 million tons, and port inventory decreased by 11.51 to 123.4 million tons [8]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.45 to 76.64%, and downstream MTO05 operating rate decreased by 13 to - 131 [9]. Polyolefins - Prices and Spreads: L2601 decreased by 6 to 6516 yuan/ton, and the L15 spread increased by 8 to - 27 [14]. - Inventory: PE enterprise inventory increased by 1.80 to 47.1 million tons, and PP enterprise inventory decreased by 2.81 to 53.7 million tons [14]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: PE device operating rate increased by 0.06 to 84.1%, and PP device operating rate increased by 0.71 to 78.3% [14]. LPG - Prices and Spreads: The main contract PG2601 increased by 39 to 4220 yuan/ton, and the PG01 - 02 spread increased by 24 to 154 [17]. - Inventory: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 0.3 to 23.7%, and port inventory increased by 8.9 to 283 million tons [17]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: Upstream main - refinery operating rate increased by 0.5 to 75.11%, and downstream PDH operating rate increased by 2.7 to 72.9% [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - Prices and Spreads: Glass 2601 decreased by 4 to 1020 yuan/ton, and soda ash 2601 increased by 10 to 1133 yuan/ton [19]. - Supply and Demand: Soda ash production increased by 3.2 to 73.54 million tons, and glass float - line daily melting volume remained unchanged at 155000 tons [19]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Prices and Spreads: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) increased by 31.3 to 2218.8 yuan/ton, and V2605 increased by 86 to 4669 yuan/ton [20]. - Supply and Demand: Caustic soda industry operating rate remained unchanged at 688, and PVC overall operating rate decreased by 0.6 to 78.4% [20]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream Prices: Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 1.64 to 58.92 US dollars per barrel, and CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 10 to 536 US dollars per ton [21]. - Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows: POY150/48 price decreased by 32 to 6300 yuan/ton, and polyester chip price decreased by 20 to 5475 yuan/ton [21]. - PX - Related Prices and Spreads: CFR China PX decreased by 6 to 827 US dollars per ton, and PX - naphtha spread increased by 6 to 397 [21]. - PTA and MEG - Related Prices and Spreads: PTA East China spot price decreased by 30 to 4590 yuan/ton, and MEG East China spot price decreased by 12 to 3634 yuan/ton [21]. - Operating Rates: Asian PX operating rate decreased by 0.7 to 78.6%, and PTA operating rate remained unchanged at 73.7% [21].