《有色》日报-20251217

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Despite a significant increase in Indonesian exports in November leading to a decline in tin prices, the fundamental situation remains strong. Tin prices are expected to maintain a strong trend for the rest of the year. It is recommended to hold long positions and adopt a strategy of buying on dips, while also keeping an eye on subsequent macro and supply - side changes [1]. Nickel - After the macro - level factors have been digested, the previous upward drivers for nickel prices are limited. With the decline of the Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price and the accelerating inventory accumulation in China, the fundamental situation is loose, which restricts the upside potential of prices. In the short term, the nickel futures market is expected to be weak, with the main contract price ranging from 110,000 to 116,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to the performance around the 110,000 - yuan resistance level and upstream production cuts and Indonesian policy news [2]. Stainless Steel - The supply pressure has slightly eased, and the stop - falling of nickel iron provides cost support. However, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory reduction is insufficient. In the short term, stainless steel is in a game of weak supply and demand. Affected by the weak performance of Shanghai nickel, it is expected to be weakly adjusted, with the main contract price ranging from 12,200 to 12,800 yuan. Attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production cuts and marginal improvements in demand [3][5]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamental situation has not changed much recently, maintaining a situation of strong supply and demand. The inventory reduction in all links last week was about 2,000 tons, and the recent inventory changes are relatively stable. The market's expectations for resumption of production are constantly adjusted, and in the short term, the futures market may maintain a strong trend driven by capital sentiment. However, in the off - season, the new driving forces may be limited, and the recent increase in news - related interference may cause market fluctuations [7]. Zinc - As the domestic zinc ore enters the production - reduction season, the tightness at the ore end may gradually spread to zinc ingots, and the supply side is gradually changing from loose to tight. The export of refined zinc drives the tightness of the spot market and boosts domestic zinc prices. In the short term, the price of Shanghai zinc may be stronger than that of London zinc. In the future, if the TC stops falling and stabilizes, the smelting profit may be repaired, which may drive the increase in zinc ingot production again. Attention should be paid to the TC inflection point and changes in refined zinc inventory, with the main contract focusing on the support around 22,800 yuan [10]. Copper - The global copper supply and inventory are imbalanced, and the tight situation at the ore end still exists, which pushes up the bottom of copper prices. Macro - events such as the release of US inflation data and the Japanese central bank's interest - rate decision this week may intensify short - term price fluctuations. The main contract should focus on the support in the range of 90,000 - 91,000 yuan [11]. Aluminum - For alumina, the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the price is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the main contract price ranging from 2,450 to 2,700 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the risk of active profit - taking due to capital reduction. Whether the market can rebound depends on the actual production - cut scale of existing enterprises and whether the inventory shows a clear inflection point. For electrolytic aluminum, supported by strong macro - expectations and real supply risks, the price is expected to be strong in the short term, but high prices may suppress terminal consumption, and the risk of a pull - back after a rise should be vigilant. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate in the range of 21,700 - 22,400 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations and the actual inventory reduction in China [14]. Industrial Silicon - It is expected that the situation of weak supply and demand will continue in December. The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. If the production decreases significantly, it may break through 10,000 yuan/ton; if the polysilicon production is significantly reduced and the industrial silicon production cut is less than expected, the price may fall to 7,500 yuan/ton. With a large number of current warehouse receipts, investors should pay attention to position management [15]. Polysilicon - The supply exceeds demand, and the inventory continues to accumulate. There is a contradiction between the strong futures market and weak spot demand. The platform company's registration is favorable for price support or an upward trend in sentiment, but the actual supply - demand balance depends on the implementation of capacity storage and production control. Currently, the polysilicon price maintains a high - level oscillation, and the futures price is strongly rising, with a large premium over the spot market. In the future, attention should be paid to the production - cut amplitude or price - fall pressure. The main contract has shifted to 2605, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is oscillating strongly in the game between strong cost support and weak demand. The cost support is strong due to the shortage of scrap aluminum raw materials and the increase in prices of auxiliary materials such as copper. However, high prices suppress downstream short - term purchasing willingness, and the operating rates of small and medium - sized die - casting enterprises have declined. The ADC12 price has limited downward space but is restricted from rising by high inventory and high prices. It is expected to maintain a high - level narrow - range oscillation in the short term, with the main contract price ranging from 20,700 to 21,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the improvement progress of scrap aluminum supply and changes in downstream purchasing rhythm [20]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Tin - Price and Basis: SMM 1 tin decreased by 1.11% to 320,500 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 194.12% to 50.00 dollars/ton [1]. - Internal - External Ratio and Import - Export Profit/Loss: The import loss was - 13,349.68 yuan/ton, with a 4.43% increase [1]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between 2601 - 2602 increased by 24.71% [1]. - Fundamental Data: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%, and the average SMM refined tin operating rate increased by 53.23% [1]. - Inventory Change: SHEF inventory increased by 7.66%, and social inventory increased by 5.59% [1]. Nickel - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 2.22% to 114,750 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 5.66% [2]. - Cost of Electrolytic Nickel: The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrolytic nickel increased by 0.19%, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte - produced electrolytic nickel decreased by 3.60% [2]. - New Energy Material Price: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 0.04%, and the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.95% [2]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between 2602 - 2603 increased by 50 yuan/ton [2]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory: China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and imports decreased by 65.66%. SHFE inventory increased by 5.10%, and social inventory increased by 3.73% [2]. Stainless Steel - Price and Basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.78% to 12,700 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures spread increased by 12.24% [3]. - Raw Material Price: The average price of 8 - 12% high - grade nickel pig iron decreased by 0.11% [3]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between 2602 - 2603 increased by 25 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamental Data: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production decreased by 0.72%, and the net export volume decreased by 21.54%. The 300 - series social inventory increased by 0.69% [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.74% to 95,850 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.76% [7]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between 2601 - 2602 increased by 120 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamental Data: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, and demand increased by 5.11%. In October, imports increased by 21.86%, and exports increased by 63.05% [7]. - Inventory: In November, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 23.36%, and the downstream inventory decreased by 21.13% [7]. Zinc - Price and Spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 1.24% to 23,180 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 15 yuan/ton [10]. - Ratio and Profit/Loss: The import loss was - 2,430 yuan/ton, with a 1,344.70 - yuan increase, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.09 [10]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between 2601 - 2602 increased by 25 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamental Data: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, and in October, imports decreased by 16.94% while exports increased by 243.79% [10]. - Inventory: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 7.57%, and LME inventory increased by 48.20% [10]. Copper - Price and Spread: SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.61% to 91,700 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 185 yuan/ton [11]. - Refined - Scrap Spread: The refined - scrap spread decreased by 16.29% to 3,981 yuan/ton [11]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between 2601 - 2602 increased by 10 yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamental Data: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and in October, imports decreased by 15.61% [11]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased by 2.62%, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 2.58% [11]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.37% to 21,630 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 60 yuan/ton [14]. - Ratio and Profit/Loss: The electrolytic aluminum import loss was - 1,983 yuan/ton, with a 99.4 - yuan increase, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.01 [14]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between AL 2601 - 2602 decreased by 20 yuan/ton [14]. - Fundamental Data: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82% [14]. - Inventory: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.17%, and the aluminum rod social inventory increased by 8.58% [14]. Industrial Silicon - Spot Price and Basis: The price of East - China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 1.76% [15]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between 2601 - 2602 increased by 300.00% [15]. - Fundamental Data: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, and the national operating rate decreased by 4.84% [15]. - Inventory Change: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 3.39%, and the social inventory increased by 0.54% [15]. Polysilicon - Spot Price and Basis: The average price of N - type re - feedstock remained unchanged at 52,300 yuan/kg, and the N - type material basis decreased by 9.95% [17]. - Futures Price and Monthly Spread: The main contract increased by 0.98% to 58,600 yuan/ton, and the spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 8.65% [17]. - Fundamental Data: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 1.67%, and monthly polysilicon production decreased by 14.48% [17]. - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.69%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 9.39% [17]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread in Foshan for broken primary aluminum increased by 1.98% [20]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between 2601 - 2602 increased by 15 yuan/ton [20]. - Fundamental Data: In November, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.74%, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.84% [20]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.08%, and the daily inventory in Foshan decreased by 0.12% [20].