《农产品》日报-20251217

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Reports Red Dates - Red dates' "weak reality" of high inventory and weak consumption of old stock dominates, combined with the new - season production reduction being less than expected and the loosening of cost support. The recent sales area has more arrivals and less shipments, with no obvious peak - season features. The short - term trend is a wide - range low - level oscillation. Future focus should be on post - Spring Festival inventory levels, 2026 planting area, and early - stage weather forecasts [1]. Live Pigs - Spot prices are stable, and with the increasing pickling demand in the South, the downward support has strengthened. There is high uncertainty in the December - January market. On one hand, the recent increase in the epidemic may suppress the spot market; on the other hand, secondary fattening may support prices. Although the monthly slaughter volume is increasing month - on - month, it is lower than expected. The spot is expected to continue to bottom out. In a situation of loose supply and demand, the futures price has difficulty rising continuously. Attention should be paid to the epidemic situation and its potential to cause early slaughter and over - consume post - holiday supply [4]. Meal Products - The U.S. soybeans lack trading highlights, and China's demand has been fully traded. South American new - season soybeans are being planted smoothly with good hydrothermal conditions and a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Early - sown soybeans will be listed in January, continuously suppressing U.S. soybeans. The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern, and the space for speculating on supply gaps has narrowed. Recently, the market is speculating on the extension of soybean customs clearance time, and the auctions have had good results, supporting the 1 - 5 positive spread. In the short - term, there is a sentiment to hold up prices in the spot market, but the spot pressure remains. There is no driving force for a single - sided trend, and the room for the positive spread to continue to strengthen is limited. Attention should be paid to the risk of a decline [7]. Corn and Corn Starch - In the northeast, farmers have a sentiment of holding up prices, and the producing - area prices are stable. Traders are more willing to sell due to the decline in futures prices, leading to an increase in the supply at northern ports and a slight decline in prices. Attention should be paid to the continuity of arrivals at northern ports. In North China, farmers adjust their selling behavior according to price changes, and the number of arriving vehicles is acceptable, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises' inventory is increasing slowly and they purchase as needed; feed enterprises' demand is rising, and forward - order purchases are increasing. In the short - term, the increase in supply causes the futures price to weaken, but the increase is limited, and due to farmers' price - holding sentiment and the need of low - inventory enterprises to replenish inventory, the decline range is restricted. Attention should be paid to the selling rhythm and downstream inventory replenishment [8]. Fats and Oils - Palm Oil: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures market is in a volatile downward trend due to concerns about potential year - end inventory growth to 2.9 million tons and a slowdown in exports. Attention should be paid to whether it can stop falling and rebound after finding support around Friday. The overall view is that the near - term is weak and the long - term is strong. The domestic palm oil futures market is also in a volatile downward trend, with a short - term weakening trend and breaking through the previous low. Affected by the decline of Malaysian palm oil, it still has the pressure to further weaken and is looking for support in the 8,200 - 8,300 yuan range. - Soybean Oil: The U.S. EPA is expected to finalize the 2026 Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) next year. Processors' enthusiasm for large - scale biodiesel production may decline, which may reduce the industrial consumption of U.S. soybean oil and drag down CBOT soybean oil. In China, the National Grain and Oil Trading Center planned to auction 513,800 tons of imported soybeans, with 323,100 tons actually sold at an average price of 3,852.08 yuan/ton and a transaction ratio of 62.88%. However, the released amount of soybeans is limited. As January approaches and the Spring Festival stocking is about to start, the factory's soybean oil inventory is expected to continue to decrease, which will support the basis quote. - Rapeseed Oil: The U.S. EPA's delay in finalizing the 2026 RVO has caused the U.S. soybean oil futures price to decline, dragging down the domestic vegetable oil market, including rapeseed oil. The market is still digesting the news of COFCO's purchase of Canadian rapeseed, increasing concerns about future supply pressure. The market sentiment is weak, and the rapeseed oil price has broken through the previous low. Attention should be paid to whether the 05 contract can find support at 9,000 yuan [12]. Sugar - The ICE raw sugar futures closed down because the Brazilian weather is favorable for the growth of the next - season sugarcane. Although the sugar production and cane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region in December are much lower than last year, the expectation of a loose supply remains. As Brazil is approaching the end of the harvest season, it has little impact on the market. Overall, the loose supply outlook restricts the rebound of raw sugar prices, and the price is in a bearish pattern. In China, the sugar - making pace in the main producing areas is accelerating. Affected by the increasing supply, the futures price is weakening. Sugar - making groups have slightly lowered their prices, and the new sugar has entered the market. However, the market trading atmosphere is still tepid, and the spot trading is average. Currently lacking positive factors, the price has no power to rebound and is expected to maintain a weak trend [14]. Cotton - The ICE cotton futures closed down due to weak exports and an expected increase in supply. The U.S. cotton export sales have decreased. Overall, U.S. cotton maintains a volatile market. In China, the market expects a decline in the next - year's planting area in Xinjiang, with an optimistic long - term outlook. However, the downstream industry is weak, with the inventory of finished products continuing to accumulate, and the profits and cash flow of spinning enterprises are deteriorating. But the overall pressure on the downstream industry is still acceptable, and spinning enterprises have a rigid demand for cotton, limiting the downside space of cotton prices. However, the constraints on cotton prices are increasing, and there is pressure on the upside. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around 14,050 - 14,100 [17]. Eggs - Egg prices have been rising from a low level, leading to farmers' reluctance to sell and a continuous decrease in the slaughter of old hens. Based on previous chick - replenishment data, the number of newly - laying hens is decreasing, but the overall inventory improvement is not obvious. Coupled with the recent cooling being conducive to egg storage, the egg supply is still sufficient. There are not many positive factors in the market, and the sales in high - price areas are slow, causing prices to decline. In low - price areas, the expectation of price increases is rising, and the transaction has improved. The sales speed varies in different markets, and prices are adjusting stably. According to the latest survey, on December 16, 2025, the production - link inventory decreased by 1.05%, and the circulation - link inventory decreased by 2.24%. Traders are mainly selling goods, and the sales in some high - price areas are slightly slow. However, the market's expectation of price increases has stimulated farmers' reluctance to sell and terminal replenishment. Considering the sufficient supply, the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Red Dates Futures - Futures Prices: The prices of red dates 2601, 2605 (main contract), and 2609 all decreased, with declines of 1.62%, 0.66%, and 0.59% respectively. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 170%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.61%. - Spot Prices: The Cangzhou special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade spot prices were 9,670 yuan/ton, 8,600 yuan/ton, and 7,200 yuan/ton respectively, with the special - grade price decreasing by 0.92% [1]. - Basis and Inventory: The basis of Cangzhou special - grade and main contract decreased by 22.22%. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts increased by 22.09% [1]. Live Pigs - Futures Prices: The price of the main contract basis decreased by 31.03%. The prices of live pigs 2605 and 2603 increased by 0.21% and 0.40% respectively, and the 3 - 5 spread increased by 3.33%. - Spot Prices: Spot prices in different regions such as Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan showed different trends. The sample - point daily slaughter volume decreased by 0.33%, and the weekly piglet price decreased by 2.94% [4]. Meal Products - Soybean Meal: The Jiangsu spot price increased by 0.32%, the M2605 futures price increased by 0.69%, and the basis decreased by 2.63%. The Brazilian 2 - month shipping - date import - crushing profit decreased by 22.9%. - Rapeseed Meal: The Jiangsu spot price decreased by 0.83%, the RM2605 futures price increased by 0.77%, and the basis decreased by 48.10%. The Canadian 1 - month shipping - date import - crushing profit increased by 1.18%. - Soybeans: The prices of Harbin soybeans and Jiangsu imported soybeans remained unchanged. The futures prices of soybean - 1 and soybean - 2 main contracts decreased by 0.97% and 0.63% respectively [7]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: The prices of corn 2601 and the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price decreased by 0.36% and 1.29% respectively. The basis decreased by 23.91%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 12.50%. - Corn Starch: The price of corn starch 2601 decreased by 0.44%, the basis increased by 14.29%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2.38% [8]. Fats and Oils - Soybean Oil: The Jiangsu first - grade spot price decreased by 0.47%, the Y2605 futures price decreased by 0.61%, and the basis increased by 3.05%. - Palm Oil: The Guangdong 24 - degree spot price decreased by 0.82%, the P2605 futures price decreased by 0.96%, and the basis increased by 20.69%. - Rapeseed Oil: The Jiangsu third - grade spot price decreased by 2.23%, the OI605 futures price decreased by 1.33%, and the basis decreased by 21.59% [12]. Sugar - Futures Prices: The prices of sugar 2601 and 2605 decreased by 1.49% and 1.42% respectively. The ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.54%. - Spot Prices: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased by 0.37% and 0.66% respectively. The national sugar production and sales decreased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory decreased [14]. Cotton - Futures Prices: The prices of cotton 2605 and 2601 decreased by 0.32% and 0.43% respectively. The ICE U.S. cotton main contract decreased by 1.25%. - Spot Prices: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index 3128B increased by 0.56% and 0.46% respectively. The industrial inventory increased slightly, and the textile exports showed different trends [17]. Eggs - Futures Prices: The prices of egg 01 and 02 contracts decreased by 0.26% and 0.48% respectively. - Spot Prices: The egg - producing - area price decreased by 0.41%, the egg - chick price decreased by 1.75%, and the culled - hen price increased by 2.85% [19].