建信期货集运指数日报-20251217

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating Core View - The SCFIS index has slightly rebounded and stabilized this week. Shipping companies continue to raise prices, boosting the market's sentiment. MSC followed Maersk to announce a price increase for January quotes, with the price of large containers on European routes rising to $3,700. The current prices of major shipping companies in the second half of December are around $3,000 - $3,500, and the quotes for the first half of January are between $3,500 - $3,700. The current price - raising trend of major shipping companies will strongly support the market's expectation of price increases before the Spring Festival. It is difficult to prove whether the 02 contract is over - valued in the short term, and the cost - performance of short - selling is not high. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the off - season April contract being over - valued, and the positive spread opportunity between 02 - 04 contracts [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: This week, the SCFIS index slightly rebounded and stabilized. Shipping companies continued to raise prices, and MSC followed Maersk to announce a price increase for January quotes. The current prices of major shipping companies in the second half of December are around $3,000 - $3,500, and the quotes for the first half of January are between $3,500 - $3,700. The joint price - raising trend of major shipping companies will support the market's expectation of price increases before the Spring Festival [8] - Operation Suggestion: It is difficult to prove whether the 02 contract is over - valued in the short term, and the cost - performance of short - selling is not high. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the off - season April contract being over - valued, and the positive spread opportunity between 02 - 04 contracts [8] 2. Industry News - Shipping Market: From December 8th to 12th, China's export container transport demand was generally stable. The spot freight rates of some major ocean routes increased due to the year - end contract signing season, and the comprehensive index rose. On December 12th, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1,506.46 points, up 7.8% from the previous period. The freight rates on European, Mediterranean, and North American routes all increased to varying degrees. Many shipping companies such as MSC, Maersk, and Hapag - Lloyd announced price increases or surcharge adjustments [9][10] - Other News: There are developments in the Gaza peace process, military operations in Israel, the situation of shipping routes through the Suez Canal, and an amnesty application by the Israeli Prime Minister [10] 3. Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Price: On December 15th, 2025, the SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) was 1,510.56, up 0.1% from December 8th; the SCFIS for US - West routes (basic ports) was 924.36, down 3.8% from December 8th [12] - Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market: The trading data of container shipping European routes futures on December 16th shows that different contracts have different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes [6] - Shipping - Related Data Charts: There are charts showing the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index, the trend of the main and secondary main contracts of container shipping European routes futures, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and shipping freight rates [13][15][16]