Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Corn: Short - term, the spot price is expected to remain strong as the channel inventory is at a neutral - low level despite the decline in spot quotes. Long - term, if downstream consumption weakens seasonally and middlemen release hoarded grains, the price may decline [1]. - Starch: Short - term, the price is expected to be stable due to seasonal consumption support and raw material supply constraints. Long - term, the downstream consumption rhythm will be the key factor for price trends [2]. - Sugar: Short - term, the pricing can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price. Long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the price may decline [4]. - Cotton: With low initial inventory and good textile profits, and positive results from the Sino - US talks, the demand is expected to improve next year, suitable for long - term long positions [7]. - Eggs: The key to future inventory decline is the culling speed. If chickens are culled before the Laba Festival due to low prices, it will be beneficial for the egg price in the second quarter [12]. - Apples: Currently, the national cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. The short - term market will maintain high - level volatility, and the medium - term trend will be near - strong and far - weak [16]. - Pigs: The short - term spot price is strong, but the near - term supply pressure is large. The long - term improvement depends on near - term production and inventory reduction [16]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn - Price Data: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the price in Changchun remained unchanged at 2160, while the price in Jinzhou decreased by 30, and the price in Shekou decreased by 10. The basis changed by - 22, and the trade profit increased by 20 [1]. - Market Analysis: Short - term, the spot price is expected to be strong as the channel inventory is not over - stocked. Long - term, the price may decline if downstream demand weakens and middlemen release hoarded grains [1]. Starch - Price Data: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the price in Heilongjiang remained at 2750, and the price in Weifang decreased by 20. The basis increased by 11, and the processing profit remained unchanged [1]. - Market Analysis: Short - term, the price is expected to be stable due to seasonal consumption and raw material supply constraints. Long - term, the downstream consumption rhythm is the key [2]. Sugar - Price Data: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the spot price in Liuzhou decreased by 30, and the basis increased by 44. The import profit from Thailand and Brazil increased by 11, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2101 [4]. - Market Analysis: Short - term, the pricing can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price. Long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the price may decline [4]. Cotton - Price Data: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 25, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 265. The import profit of Vietnamese yarn increased by 27, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 26 [7]. - Market Analysis: With low initial inventory and good textile profits, and positive results from the Sino - US talks, the demand is expected to improve next year, suitable for long - term long positions [7]. Eggs - Price Data: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the price in Hebei remained at 3.02. The basis increased, and the prices of substitutes such as white - feather broilers and yellow - feather broilers remained relatively stable [12]. - Market Analysis: The key to future inventory decline is the culling speed. If chickens are culled before the Laba Festival due to low prices, it will be beneficial for the egg price in the second quarter [12]. Apples - Price Data: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900. The national cold - storage inventory data shows a decrease compared to last year [15][16]. - Market Analysis: Currently, the national cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. The short - term market will maintain high - level volatility, and the medium - term trend will be near - strong and far - weak [16]. Pigs - Price Data: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the price in Henan Kaifeng remained at 11.43. The basis decreased by 45 [16]. - Market Analysis: The short - term spot price is strong, but the near - term supply pressure is large. The long - term improvement depends on near - term production and inventory reduction [16].
农产品早报-20251217
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-12-17 01:29