建信期货铁矿石日评-20251217

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: December 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, while the demand remains weak, putting pressure on the overall fundamentals of iron ore. It is predicted that iron ore prices will continue to fluctuate weakly. In the entire sector, coking coal and coke are relatively weaker, and an arbitrage strategy of shorting coking coal and coke and going long on iron ore can be considered [10][11]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review - On December 16, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures oscillated upward, opening with an upward trend, oscillating in the afternoon, and closing at 761.0 yuan/ton, up 1.06% [7]. - The table shows the prices, trading volumes, and open interest of steel and iron ore futures main contracts on December 16, including RB2605, HC2605, SS2602, and I2605 [5]. - Another table presents the open interest of the top 20 long and short positions in black - series futures on December 16, covering RB2605, HC2605, SS2602, J2601, JM2605, and I2605 [8]. 3.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - Spot Market: On December 16, the main iron ore overseas quotes rose by 1 US dollar/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port increased by 1 - 3 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. - Technical Analysis: For the iron ore 2605 contract, the daily KDJ indicator shows a divergent trend, with the K and J values turning up and the D value continuing to decline, showing a potential golden cross. The daily MACD indicator's green bar is narrowing [9]. 3.3 Future Outlook - Supply: Last week, the shipments from Australia and Brazil significantly increased, and the arrivals also rose. As the end of the year approaches, overseas mines may increase their shipments to meet their targets [10]. - Demand: The total output of the five major steel products reached a new low since late February, with the output of construction steel dropping most significantly. The average daily hot - metal output has declined for four consecutive weeks and is now below 2.3 million tons. Although steel mill profits have recovered, due to the seasonal weakness of terminal demand, the enthusiasm for steel mills to resume production is still low, and iron ore demand is expected to remain weak [10][11]. - Inventory: Steel mills are restocking as needed. The inventory available days have increased by 1 day to 20 days compared to last week. Port inventories continue to accumulate, reaching 154 million tons, a new high since April 2022, and are expected to continue to accumulate slightly [11]. 3.4 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission's Party Group pointed out in an article in Qiushi magazine that efforts should be made to stabilize bulk consumption, implement the policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones, and carry out key projects in consumption - supporting facilities such as elderly care, childcare, health, and cultural tourism. It also mentioned measures to regulate market competition and remove unreasonable consumption restrictions [12]. - The Hainan Provincial People's Government announced that Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start the whole - island customs closure on December 18 [12]. 3.5 Data Overview The report provides multiple charts showing various data related to the iron ore and steel industry, including prices, shipments, arrivals, production, inventory, and utilization rates, with data sources from MySteel and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [14][22][23] etc.