芳烃橡胶早报-20251217

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the near - term TA device runs stably, polyester load may reach an inflection point and TA inventory will gradually accumulate, with overall low pressure and valuation. Short - term outlook is to wait and see, while long - term attention should be paid to buying opportunities on dips due to the good PX pattern and raw material support [2] - For MEG, after the valuation is compressed, production cuts increase, the inventory accumulation rate narrows, and the profit compression space is limited. However, considering new production capacity, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [2] - For polyester staple fiber, the short - term inventory pressure is limited, but new production capacity is accelerating, and the downstream is entering the off - season. The pattern is weakening, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [2] - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, with stable national explicit inventory and stable Thai cup - lump price affected by rainfall, the strategy is to wait and see [2] PTA - Price Changes: From December 10 to 16, 2025, crude oil dropped from $62.2 to $58.9, PTA internal - market spot price decreased from 4605 to 4590, and the polyester gross profit decreased from 27 to 8 [2] - Device and Market Conditions: Near - term TA device runs stably with stable start - up, polyester load drops slightly, inventory is destocked, basis strengthens slightly, and spot processing fee weakens. PX domestic start - up is stable, overseas load rises, PXN strengthens, disproportionation benefit is stable while isomerization benefit increases, and the US - Asia aromatics spread contracts [2] MEG - Price Changes: From December 10 to 16, 2025, MEG internal - market price dropped from 3674 to 3634, and MEG coal - to - MEG profit decreased from - 617 to - 615 [2] - Device and Market Conditions: Near - term domestic oil - based MEG reduces load, start - up decreases, some overseas devices reduce load, port inventory accumulates at the beginning of next week, basis weakens, and coal - to - MEG benefit continues to weaken [2] Polyester Staple Fiber - Price Changes: From December 10 to 16, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber remained at 6310 - 6325, and the short - fiber profit remained at 123 - 152 [2] - Device and Market Conditions: Near - term Hengyi Gaoxin has maintenance, start - up drops to 95.5%, production and sales are basically stable, and inventory is stable. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn is stable, raw material inventory increases, and finished - product inventory accumulates, with improved benefit [2] Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - Price Changes: From December 10 to 16, 2025, the US - dollar Thai standard spot price increased from 1820 to 1825, and the RU main contract price decreased from 15215 to 15170 [2] - Market Conditions: The national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - lump price is stable affected by rainfall [2] Styrene - Price Changes: From December 10 to 16, 2025, the styrene (CFR China) price remained at 815 - 818, and the EPS (East - China common material) price remained at 7550 [5] - Profit Changes: The styrene domestic profit remained at - 94 to - 98, and the EPS domestic profit increased from 210 to 235 [5]