铜期货日报-20251217

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper opened high and closed low. Due to the ebb of AI trading and concerns about the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the global stock market tumbled, and copper price rally was frustrated again. The price of Shanghai copper dropped to near the bull - bear line, and the decline narrowed in the afternoon. The spread between near - month contracts narrowed to 80. Spot price dropped by 565, and the discount widened by 185. The overall demand was poor. LME0 - 3 shifted to contango structure, and the loss of spot imports narrowed to around 670. The trading of Yangshan copper remained weak. In the short term, the sentiment transmission of the global stock market has a great impact on copper prices. Before the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock [10] Group 3: Industry News - Morgan Stanley predicts that there will be a 260,000 - ton copper supply gap in 2025, and the gap will further widen to 600,000 tons in 2026 [10] - The monitoring model of China's copper industry monthly prosperity index shows that in November 2025, China's copper industry prosperity index was 39.7, down 2.0 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the "normal" range; the leading index was 73.4, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month; the coincident index was 74.3, down 3.6 percentage points from the previous month [10] - Korea Zinc will invest $7.4 billion in building a smelter in Tennessee, USA. The project will produce key minerals such as zinc, lead, copper, etc. for the chip, defense, and aerospace industries. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and the US government will jointly invest, and a joint - venture company Crucible JV LLC will be established. The project is planned to start construction in 2026 and be put into commercial operation in 2029 [10] - The merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources has been approved by the Canadian government. Anglo American will invest at least C$4.5 billion in Canada within five years, making the group's total investment in Canada in the next 15 years at least C$10 billion. The merged mining company will be headquartered in Vancouver [10][11]