大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251217

1. Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: December 17, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] 2. LLDPE Analysis 2.1 Fundamental Analysis - In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, with a 137,000 barrels per day increase in December and a suspension of the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices declined, and coal - based profits stabilized. Agricultural film demand was stable, while packaging film demand weakened after the peak season. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6520 (-60), with an overall bearish fundamental outlook [4]. 2.2 Basis Analysis - The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -23, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.4%, considered neutral [4]. 2.3 Inventory Analysis - PE comprehensive inventory is 508,000 tons (+11,000), which is bearish [4]. 2.4 Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish market [4]. 2.5 Main Position Analysis - The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. 2.6 Outlook - The LLDPE main contract is weak on the market, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to fluctuate today [4]. 2.7 Factors - Bullish factor: Cost support [5] - Bearish factors: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [5] 3. PP Analysis 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - Similar to LLDPE, in November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month. OPEC+ maintained the production plan, with a 137,000 barrels per day increase in December and a suspension from January to March 2026. Coal prices declined, coal - based profits stabilized, and PDH profits continued to decline with the strong propane price. Plastic weaving demand entered the off - season, while pipe demand was okay. The current PP delivery spot price is 6250 (-0), with an overall bearish fundamental outlook [6]. 3.2 Basis Analysis - The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -6, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.1%, considered neutral [6]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - PP comprehensive inventory is 537,000 tons (-28,000), which is bearish [6]. 3.4 Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish market [6]. 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing but still bearish [6]. 3.6 Outlook - The PP main contract is weak on the market, with oversupply in the fundamentals. The rising propane price affects the market, industrial inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate today [6]. 3.7 Factors - Bullish factor: Cost support [7] - Bearish factors: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7] 4. Market Data 4.1 LLDPE Market Data | Category | Details | |--|--| | Spot Delivery | Price 6520, change -60 | | LL Import US Dollar | Price 765, change 0 | | LL Import Conversion | Price 6633, change - 5 | | LL Import Spread | -113, change -55 | | 05 Contract | Price 6543, change -14 | | Basis | -23, change -46 | | L01 | Price 6516, change - 6 | | L05 | Price 6543, change -14 | | L09 | Price 6568, change -15 | | Warehouse Receipts | Quantity 11332, change 0 | | PE Comprehensive Factory Warehouse | Quantity not clear, change 0 | | PE Social Inventory | Quantity not clear, change 12 | [8] 4.2 PP Market Data | Category | Details | |--|--| | Spot Delivery | Price 6250, change 0 | | PP Import US Dollar | Price 750, change 0 | | PP Import Conversion | Price 6506, change - 5 | | PP Import Spread | -256, change 5 | | 05 Contract | Price 6256, change 2 | | Basis | - 6, change - 2 | | PP01 | Price 6192, change 14 | | PP05 | Price 6256, change 2 | | PP09 | Price 6291, change 14 | | Warehouse Receipts | Quantity 15113, change -634 | | PP Comprehensive Factory Warehouse | Quantity not clear, change 0 | | PP Social Inventory | Quantity not clear, change 0 | [8] 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets 5.1 Polyethylene Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an increasing trend. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. 5.2 Polypropylene Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]