大越期货纯碱早报-20251217

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory. The industry's supply-demand mismatch has not improved effectively. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate with a downward trend [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1170 yuan/ton, up 4.19%; the low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1140 yuan/ton, up 0.88%; the main basis was -30 yuan/ton, down 528.57% [6] 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1140 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12] 3. Fundamentals - Supply - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia-alkali method was -147.60 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co-production method was -129 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15] - Operating Rate, Production Capacity and Output: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 84.35%, and the weekly output was 73.54 tons, including 39.78 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][21] - Changes in Production Capacity: In 2023, the total new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity was 750 tons, with actual production of 100 tons [22] 4. Fundamentals - Demand - Sales Ratio: The weekly sales ratio of soda ash was 106.02% [25] - Downstream Demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.72 tons, with an operating rate of 74.85% [28] 5. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory in soda ash factories nationwide was 149.43 tons, a 2.88% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5-year average [34] 6. Fundamentals - Supply-Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply-demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, production capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35] 7. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply has been slow [3] - Negative Factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production of the industry is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]