大越期货油脂早报-20251217

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to move in a sideways consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Oil Type Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with production cuts falling short of expectations. Current shipping survey agencies show a 4% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil export data this month. Entering the subsequent production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,200, with a basis of 328, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year [2] - Market: The futures price is trading below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil contract Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,600 - 8,000 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and production cuts are less than expected. Entering the subsequent production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,440, with a basis of 30, indicating a slight premium of the spot price over the futures price [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year [3] - Market: The futures price is trading below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3] - Expectation: The palm oil contract P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,100 - 8,500 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report is neutral, and production cuts are less than expected. Entering the subsequent production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,700, with a basis of 637, indicating a significant premium of the spot price over the futures price [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year [4] - Market: The futures price is trading below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil contract OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,800 - 9,200 [4] 4. Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - 利空: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]