大越期货尿素早报-20251217

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Report date: December 17, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, the comprehensive inventory has declined, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. The overall supply of domestic urea still exceeds demand, and it is expected that the trend of the UR contract today will be volatile [4] Group 4: Urea Overview Fundamental Analysis - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. On the demand side, both agricultural and industrial demand are mainly based on needs. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has increased significantly year - on - year, and the operating rate of melamine is stable. The price difference between domestic and foreign exports is large, but the short - term export demand has declined, and the overall supply of domestic urea still exceeds demand. The spot price of the delivery product is 1670 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] Basis Analysis - The basis of the UR2601 contract is - 3, and the premium/discount ratio is - 0.2%, which is neutral [4] Inventory Analysis - UR comprehensive inventory is 1.357 million tons (- 38,000 tons), which is bearish [4] Disk Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] Main Position Analysis - The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bearish [4] Expectation - The futures price of the urea main contract is weakly declining. Industrial demand is mainly based on needs, inventory is being de - stocked, short - term export demand has declined, and the overall domestic supply still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4] Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factor: Inventory de - stocking [5] - Bearish factors: Domestic supply exceeds demand; Daily production reaches a new high [5] - Main logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5] Group 5: Market Data Spot Market - The price of the spot delivery product is 1670, unchanged; the price of Shandong spot is 1700, unchanged; the price of Henan spot is 1670, unchanged; the FOB China price is 2729 [6] Futures Market - The price of the 05 contract is 1673, down 8; the basis is - 3, up 8; the price of UR01 is 1630, up 1; the price of UR05 is 1673, down 8; the price of UR09 is 1681, down 6 [6] Inventory Data - The number of warehouse receipts is 11,214, down 31; UR comprehensive inventory is 1.357 million tons; UR manufacturer inventory is 1.234 million tons; UR port inventory is 123,000 tons [6] Group 6: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with a capacity growth rate ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production, net import volume, apparent consumption, and actual consumption also show an overall upward trend, with certain fluctuations in the import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9]