碳酸锂期货早报-20251217

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate is in a tight balance, and the sentiment in the market is fluctuating due to news. The 2605 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate between 96,940 - 100,540 [8]. - The positive factors include the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. The negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views [8] - Fundamentals - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 21,998 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 103,658 tons, a 0.02% week - on - week decrease; the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,524 tons, a 1.68% week - on - week decrease. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 98,042 yuan/ton, a 0.21% day - on - day increase, with a production loss of 4,215 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 95,062 yuan/ton, a 0.37% day - on - day increase, with a production loss of 3,579 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end was generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and high production motivation. - Basis: On December 16th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 95,850 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 4,750 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, which was bearish. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 19,161 tons, a 7.73% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 42,738 tons, a 2.19% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 49,570 tons, a 0.88% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 111,469 tons, a 1.87% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. - Market: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20, which was bullish. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and the short position increased, which was bearish. - Expectation: In November 2025, the lithium carbonate output was 95,350 physical tons, and it is predicted that next month's output will be 98,210 physical tons, a 3.00% month - on - month increase. The import volume in November 2025 was 25,500 physical tons, and it is predicted that next month's import volume will be 27,000 physical tons, a 5.88% month - on - month increase. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The CIF price of 6% concentrate has a daily increase and is lower than the historical average. The demand - dominated situation has weakened. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Price and Basis - The price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 2.04% to 1,248 US dollars/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.74% to 95,850 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.76% to 93,350 yuan/ton [14]. - Supply - side Data - The weekly operating rate was 83.52%, an 8.18% increase from the previous value, a 10.86% increase. The monthly output of lithium carbonate in November 2025 was 95,350 tons, a 3.35% increase from the previous month [18]. - Demand - side Data - The monthly output of lithium iron phosphate was 348,500 tons, a 5.14% increase from the previous month. The monthly output of lithium iron phosphate was 87,480 tons, a 5.32% decrease from the previous month. The monthly power battery loading volume was 84,100 GWh, a 10.66% increase from the previous month [18]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production - The price and production of lithium ore, including lithium spodumene and lithium mica, showed different trends over time. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also changed, and the weekly inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore showed fluctuations in different years [26]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed different situations in each month. There were periods of supply shortage and surplus [28]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Operating Rate and Production - The weekly operating rate and production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling materials) showed different trends over time. The monthly output and capacity of lithium carbonate also changed [31]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed different situations in each month. There were periods of supply shortage and surplus [38]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity Utilization and Production - The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly output of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) showed different trends over time. The export volume of lithium hydroxide also changed [41]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations in each month. There were periods of supply shortage and surplus [43]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Cost and Profit of Different Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of different lithium compounds, including lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, recycled lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide, showed different trends over time [46][48][51]. 3.7 Inventory - Inventory of Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventories, showed different trends over time [53]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price, Production, and Sales of Lithium Battery - The price, production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries, including power batteries and energy - storage batteries, showed different trends over time [57][59]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price, Cost, and Production of Ternary Precursor - The price, cost, production, and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors showed different trends over time. The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors also showed different situations in each month from 2024 to 2025 [62][65]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price, Cost, and Production of Ternary Material - The price, cost, production, and export volume of ternary materials showed different trends over time. The weekly inventory of ternary materials also changed [68][70]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price, Cost, and Production of Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - The price, cost, production, and export volume of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time. The weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium also changed [72][75]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Export of New Energy Vehicle - The production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, and inventory of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time [80][84].