大越期货PVC期货早报-20251217

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents a mixed outlook on the PVC market. There are both positive and negative factors. The positives include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negatives are the overall rebound in supply pressure, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [10]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish [11]. Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Viewpoints - Likely Positive Factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [10] - Likely Negative Factors: Overall rebound in supply pressure, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [10] - Main Logic: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [11] 2. Fundamental and Position Data - Supply Side: In November 2025, PVC production was 2.07926 million tons, a 2.29% month - on - month decrease. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.43%, a 0.01 percentage point month - on - month decrease. Calcium carbide - method enterprise production was 343,760 tons, a 3.21% month - on - month decrease, while ethylene - method enterprise production was 145,310 tons, a 7.43% month - on - month increase. Supply pressure decreased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a slight increase in scheduled production [7]. - Demand Side: The overall downstream operating rate was 48.89%, a 0.18 percentage point month - on - month decrease, but still above the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 35.13%, a 0.73 percentage point month - on - month decrease, above the historical average; the downstream pipe operating rate was 37.6%, a 0.200 percentage point month - on - month increase, below the historical average; the downstream film operating rate was 73.93%, unchanged month - on - month, above the historical average; the downstream paste resin operating rate was 81.36%, a 1.05 percentage point month - on - month increase, above the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive, but current demand may remain sluggish [7]. - Cost Side: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 1,102.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month loss increase of 8.10%, below the historical average; the profit of the ethylene method was - 520.44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month loss increase of 10.10%, below the historical average; the double - ton price difference was 1,732.55 yuan/ton, a month - on - month profit increase of 5.00%, below the historical average. Scheduled production may be under pressure [7]. - Basis: On December 16, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,440 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 229 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. This is a bearish signal [7]. - Inventory: Factory inventory was 344,305 tons, a 5.66% month - on - month increase. Calcium carbide - method factory inventory was 260,505 tons, a 6.35% month - on - month increase, and ethylene - method factory inventory was 83,800 tons, a 3.58% month - on - month increase. Social inventory was 517,400 tons, a 2.24% month - on - month decrease. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.45 days, a 1.30% month - on - month increase. This is a bearish signal [7]. - Market Chart: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20. This is a bearish signal [7]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions. This is a bearish signal [7]. - Fundamentals: Neutral [7] 3. PVC Market Overview - Presents yesterday's market data, including prices, price changes, and inventory changes of various PVC - related indicators such as different types of PVC prices, inter - month spreads, factory inventories, and social inventories [14] 4. PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend: Displays the historical basis trend of PVC, including the relationship between the basis, East China market price of PVC, and the closing price of the main futures contract [17] - Futures Price and Volume: Shows the price and trading volume trends of the PVC futures main contract, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20, MA60, MA120). Also shows the changes in the net positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats [20] - Spread Analysis: Displays the historical spread trends of the main PVC futures contracts, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [23] 5. PVC Fundamentals - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: Analyzes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and inventory trends of various raw materials in the calcium carbide method, including semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, etc. For example, it shows the price trends of semi - coke in Shenmu, the cost - profit of calcium carbide in Wuhai, the price and production of liquid chlorine, the price and monthly production of raw salt, the price, cost - profit, operating rate, production, and inventory of caustic soda in Shandong [26][29][31][34] - Supply Trend: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, production, and maintenance volume trends of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production. Also shows the daily and weekly production, maintenance volume, and capacity utilization rate trends of PVC [38][40] - Demand Trend: Analyzes various demand - related indicators of PVC, including the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin). It also shows the investment and construction data of the real estate industry and some macro - economic data such as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year growth [42][46][52] - Inventory: Analyzes the inventory trends of PVC, including exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - method factory inventory, ethylene - method factory inventory, social inventory, and the in - stock days of production enterprises [56] - Ethylene Method: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads in the ethylene method, such as the FOB price spread between Tianjin and Taiwan and the import price spread of vinyl chloride between Jiangsu and the Far East CIF [59] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Presents the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC from September 2024 to October 2025, including production, import, export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, and supply - demand differences [61]