大越期货豆粕早报-20251217

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Bean Meal - Bean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate between 2740 and 2800. The market is neutral, with the spot price at a premium to the futures, an increase in oil - mill bean meal inventory, the price below the 20 - day moving average, a reduction in short positions by the main players, and an inflow of funds. In the short term, it may be driven by US soybeans and show a weakening trend [9]. Soybeans - Soybean A2601 is expected to oscillate between 4100 and 4200. The market is neutral, with the spot price slightly at a premium to the futures, an increase in oil - mill soybean inventory, the price below the 20 - day moving average, a reduction in short positions by the main players, and an outflow of funds. The price is supported by the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imports but is suppressed by high imports and expected domestic production increases [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Bean meal M2605 is in a 2740 - 2800 range, and soybean A2601 is in a 4100 - 4200 range. Analyses from multiple aspects such as fundamentals, basis, inventory, etc., are provided for both [9][11]. 2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans. The arrival of imported soybeans in December decreased, while oil - mill soybean inventory remained high. The decline in domestic pig - farming profits led to low expectations for pig restocking, but the demand for bean meal rebounded in December. The bean meal market is in a range - bound state, waiting for further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Bean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, no pressure on oil - mill bean meal inventory, and uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in December and the expected high yield of South American soybeans under normal weather conditions [15]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [16]. - Bearish factors: High yield of Brazilian soybeans and increased purchases by China, and expected increase in domestic soybean production [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - A large amount of data is provided, including the global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets, showing the changes in harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc., over the years [33][34]. - The trading data of bean meal and rapeseed meal from December 8th to 16th, including transaction prices, volumes, and price differences, are presented [17]. - The price data of soybean and bean - meal futures and spot from December 9th to 16th are given [19]. 5. Position Data - The warehouse - receipt statistics of soybeans and bean meal from December 5th to 16th are provided, showing the changes in warehouse - receipt quantities [21]. Other Information - The bean - meal futures price declined, while the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot discount narrowed slightly [24]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the bean - meal production in September increased year - on - year [26]. - The procurement of domestic downstream industries rebounded from a low level, and the pick - up volume remained high [28]. - The spot price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract widened slightly [30]. - The US soybean export inspection increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year [47]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from a high level in November but increased year - on - year overall [49]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills remained high, and the bean - meal inventory returned to a high level [50]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills rebounded to a high level, and the stocking demand increased [52]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained at a relatively high level, and the bean - meal production in September increased year - on - year [54]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated with the US soybeans, and the on - disk profit fluctuated slightly [56]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month [58]. - The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [60]. - The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly [62]. - The domestic pig - farming profit fluctuated slightly [64].