摩根资管：2026年市场展望-投资纪律将成为致胜关键

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious investment approach, emphasizing disciplined risk management and portfolio construction as key to navigating the complex market landscape in 2026 [3][4]. Core Insights - The global economy is expected to exhibit a pattern of strong growth in the first half of 2026, driven by fiscal stimulus and AI-related capital investments, followed by a potential slowdown as fiscal effects wane and labor market challenges become more pronounced [3][5]. - China's economic growth is projected to stabilize around 5% GDP growth, with inflation targets maintained at 2%, supported by structural policies and fiscal measures [5][9]. - The U.S. economy may experience strong growth in early 2026 due to personal income tax refunds and sustained demand for AI-related technology, but is expected to slow down in the latter half of the year [15][20]. Summary by Sections Market Outlook - Investment discipline will be crucial for distinguishing investor performance, particularly in asset selection and managing exposure to fiscal sustainability, technology investments, and credit risk [4]. - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio and selecting investment managers carefully to navigate market volatility and seize potential opportunities [4]. China Economic Outlook - The report indicates that consumer and investment demand in China may face downward pressure, while export growth could show resilience, particularly following a recent trade agreement with the U.S. [5][9]. - The "anti-involution" policy has alleviated deflationary pressures, but further policy responses are needed to address ongoing economic challenges [7][9]. - Fiscal policy is expected to play a leading role, focusing on structural support for livelihoods and advanced industries [14]. U.S. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is anticipated to maintain strong growth in early 2026, driven by consumer demand and corporate investment, particularly in AI technologies [15][20]. - Inflation pressures are expected to rise, with CPI projected to increase to 3.5% mid-year before tapering off [17][20]. - The labor market faces challenges, with demand softening and hiring slowing, which may influence Federal Reserve policy decisions [21][22]. Global Economic Outlook - The report predicts a moderate slowdown in global growth, with risks skewed to the downside, particularly due to uncertainties in trade policies and fiscal sustainability [30][31]. - Asia's growth is challenged by trade issues and export performance, but strong demand for AI-related capital expenditures may provide some relief [28][54]. - European growth may benefit from positive domestic policies, but risks remain regarding the balance between fiscal discipline and investor expectations [32][33].