JIANGTE MOTOR(SZ:002176) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-17 08:40Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report suggests trading with a light position in a volatile market and controlling risks by paying attention to trading rhythms [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 108,620 yuan/ton, up 8,020 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is -177,850 lots, down 8,717 lots; the position of the main contract is 668,589 lots, up 2,562 lots; the spread between near and far contracts is -1,400 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 15,636 lots/ton, up 350 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 97,050 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 94,450 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is -11,570 yuan/ton, down 6,820 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,230 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 11,600 yuan/ton, up 625 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 4,058 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 53,980 tons, up 2,450 tons; the monthly import volume is 23,880.69 tons, up 4,283.79 tons; the monthly export volume is 245.91 tons, up 95.10 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged; the monthly output of power batteries is 176,300 MWh, up 5,700 MWh; the prices of manganese - acid lithium, hexafluorophosphate lithium, cobalt - acid lithium, and various ternary materials are unchanged [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The operating rates of ternary cathode materials and lithium iron phosphate cathode materials are 51% and 63% respectively, down 1 percentage point each; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,880,000 vehicles, up 108,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,823,000 vehicles, up 108,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 47.48%, up 0.74 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 14,780,000 vehicles, up 3,518,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume is 300,000 vehicles, up 44,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume is 2.315 million vehicles, up 1.174 million vehicles [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 53.25%, up 2.75 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility is 51.25%, up 3.05 percentage points; the total call position is 130,660 contracts, up 2,257 contracts; the total put position is 108,401 contracts, up 3,847 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total position is 82.96%, up 1.5377 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money options is up 0.0005 percentage points [2] Industry News - In 2026, the top priority is to expand domestic demand, and efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market from both supply and demand sides; Yichun plans to cancel 27 mining licenses, including Jiangte Motor's mining right, and the company has submitted an objection; it is estimated that in 2026, China's overseas production and sales of automobiles (including exports) will reach 8 million, with a 15% increase, and new energy vehicles will reach 3.5 million, with a two - year compound growth rate of 65%, and the export value of auto parts and lithium batteries will reach 180 billion US dollars [2] Market Analysis - The main contract of lithium carbonate fluctuates strongly, with an increase of 7.61% at the close. The position increases month - on - month, the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, and the basis weakens compared with the previous day. The raw material price is supported by the strong futures market and overseas mines' price - holding. The supply of lithium salt increases steadily due to good profits and new production lines. The demand remains strong due to high - level orders of downstream battery factories, and the industry chain continues to reduce inventory [2] Technical Analysis - On the 60 - minute MACD chart, the two lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars slightly converge [2]