瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20251217

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the domestic market, the cotton picking and delivery in Xinjiang are almost finished, and the ginning mills' lint processing volume is increasing. The national commercial inventory is growing. As of December 12, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 470.23 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 23.73 million tons (a 5.31% increase). On the demand side, the peak - season procurement of downstream textile enterprises has ended, but the orders for medium - and high - count yarns are stable. Most enterprises choose to replenish inventory as needed. With potential long - term benefits, the short - term cotton price may continue to rise [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price was 13,925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; cotton futures' top 20 net positions were - 148,999 lots, a decrease of 518 lots; the main contract's cotton position was 731,267 lots, an increase of 17,680 lots; the cotton warehouse receipt quantity was 3,482 lots, an increase of 283 lots. - The main contract closing price of cotton yarn was 20,085 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the top 20 net positions of cotton yarn futures were - 838 lots, a decrease of 232 lots; the main contract's cotton yarn position was 22,447 lots, an increase of 359 lots; the cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity was 9 lots, a decrease of 2 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,144 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 12,863 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff) was 13,892 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan. - The China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,830 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 21,065 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton combed yarn 32s was 22,237 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,686 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan; the national industrial cotton inventory was 850,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton was 90,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 140,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the profit of imported cotton was 1,238 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan; the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.9306 million tons, an increase of 1.9089 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn were 26.12 days, an increase of 1.27 days; the inventory days of grey fabric were 31.97 days, an increase of 0.85 days; the monthly output of cloth was 2.62 billion meters, a decrease of 0.18 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.001 million tons, a decrease of 0.073 million tons; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 110,034,804,300 US dollars, a decrease of 14,497,665,700 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 112,584,189,200 US dollars, a decrease of 7,080,970,800 US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options was 2.09%, a decrease of 11.87%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options was 13.96%, an increase of 2.38%; the 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 6.77%, an increase of 0.07%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.01%, an increase of 0.05% [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Brazilian Cotton Growers Association (Abrapa) reported that Brazil's cotton planting area in 2026 is estimated to be 2.05 million hectares, 5% lower than in 2025, and the output is estimated to be 2.83 million tons, a 10% year - on - year decrease. - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures closed lower on Tuesday due to weak export sales and expected future supply increases. The ICE March cotton futures contract fell 0.84 cents, or 1.31%, to settle at 63.10 cents per pound [2]