瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20251217

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The HC2605 contract reduced positions and consolidated on Wednesday. The overall terminal demand for hot-rolled coils still shows strong resilience, but high production levels hinder inventory reduction. In the short term, the market is affected by the raw material side and macro expectations, and the market fluctuates within a range. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rebounding from low levels. It is recommended for short-term trading with attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,245 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - HC main contract position: 1,199,948 lots, down 6,813 lots [2]. - HC contract top 20 net position: 35,463 lots, up 1,350 lots [2]. - HC1 - 5 contract spread: 10 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 131,304 tons, unchanged [2]. - HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread: 161 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,280 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Guangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Wuhan 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,330 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tianjin 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,180 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - HC main contract basis: 35 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - Hangzhou hot-rolled coil - rebar spread: -20 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 785 yuan/wet ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - Hebei quasi-primary metallurgical coke: 1,640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,140 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,940 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - 45-port iron ore inventory: 154.2786 million tons, up 1.3152 million tons [2]. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 499,600 tons, up 55,100 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.3522 million tons, up 99,700 tons [2]. - Hebei billet inventory: 1.1165 million tons, down 16,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 78.61%, down 1.53 percentage points [2]. - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 85.9%, down 1.16 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil production: 3.0871 million tons, down 56,000 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 78.86%, down 1.43 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil factory inventory: 840,300 tons, up 41,100 tons [2]. - 33-city hot-rolled coil social inventory: 3.1306 million tons, down 73,700 tons [2]. - Domestic crude steel production: 69.87 million tons, down 2.13 million tons [2]. - Steel net export volume: 9.484 million tons, up 204,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 3.5316 million vehicles, up 172,900 vehicles [2]. - Automobile sales: 3.429 million vehicles, up 106,900 vehicles [2]. - Air conditioner production: 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [2]. - Household refrigerator production: 8.788 million units, down 1.3396 million units [2]. - Household washing machine production: 11.035 million units, down 749,900 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Handan launched a level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather on December 14. Three blast furnaces in plate steel mills are under maintenance, and the daily average hot metal output is expected to decrease by about 15,000 tons. Another blast furnace plans to join the maintenance, further affecting the daily average hot metal output [2]. - On December 10, a 1780m³ blast furnace of Tianjin Tiantie began maintenance, affecting the daily average hot metal output by about 6,000 tons, with an expected maintenance period of 34 days [2]. 3.7 Key Points of Concern - Thursday's hot-rolled coil weekly production, in-plant inventory, and social inventory [2].