铂钯金期货日报-20251217

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The latest non - farm report shows that the US labor market remains weak, with the unemployment rate rebounding sharply in November. The expectation of an FOMC rate cut in March next year has increased, and the main platinum and palladium futures contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continue to rise strongly [2]. - The recent price increase of platinum and palladium is mainly driven by spot shortages and arbitrage trading. The tightening of physical supply and the increase in palladium ETF holdings exacerbate the supply - demand contradiction, and high basis and spreads stimulate arbitrage motives [2]. - In the medium and long term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the expansion of medium - to - long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand is weakening due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the popularization of new energy vehicles, but the bullish sentiment driven by rate - cut expectations may support prices, and its current low price may make it a cost - effective choice again [2]. - Due to the recent large increase in the precious metal market, short - term correction risks should be noted. Specific price ranges for different contracts and spot prices are provided [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum main contract closing price (daily, yuan/g): 527.55, up 34.50; Palladium main contract closing price (daily, yuan/g): 455.15, up 29.75. - Main contract positions: Platinum (daily, lots): 10387.00, down 277.00; Palladium (daily, lots): 3179.00, up 90.00 [2] 3.2现货市场 - SGE platinum spot price (Pt9995): 497.89, up 26.57; Yangtze River palladium spot price: 406.00, up 21.00. - Platinum main contract basis (daily, yuan/g): - 29.66, down 7.93; Palladium main contract basis (daily, yuan/g): - 49.15, down 8.75 [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts): 9966.00, down 243.00; Palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts): 3003.00, down 342.00. - Total platinum supply (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 220.40, down 0.80; Total palladium supply (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 293.00, down 5.00. - Total platinum demand (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 261.60, up 25.60; Total palladium demand (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 287.00, down 27.00 [2] 3.4 Macro Data - US dollar index: 98.22, down 0.02; VIX volatility index: 16.48, down 0.06; 10 - year US Treasury real yield (%): 1.92, down 0.01. - In November, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000, higher than the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. In October, non - farm payrolls decreased by 105,000, far more than the expected 25,000. The data for August and September were also revised down by a total of 33,000. The average hourly wage in November increased by 3.5% year - on - year, the lowest growth rate since May 2021. - In October, US retail sales were flat month - on - month, slightly lower than the expected 0.1% growth, mainly dragged down by a 1.6% decline in auto sales. Core retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, slightly exceeding expectations. - The preliminary value of the US S & P Global Manufacturing PMI in December dropped to 51.8, a 5 - month low. The preliminary value of the Services PMI dropped from 54.1 to 52.9, and the preliminary value of the Composite PMI dropped to 53, all at 6 - month lows. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent is optimistic about the US economic outlook, expecting the full - year GDP growth rate in 2025 to reach 3.5%, and Trump will announce the candidate for the Fed Chairman in early January next year [2] 3.5 Key Points to Follow - On December 17 at 21:30, pay attention to the year - on - year change of US retail sales (%); on December 18 at 21:30, pay attention to the month - on - month change of US core CPI (%) [2]