Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory build - up, and the overall inventory build - up rate has widened month - on - month. Overseas standard rubber arrivals are increasing while mixed rubber arrivals are slightly decreasing. Downstream tire manufacturers are cautious in replenishing stocks, with a mostly wait - and - see purchasing sentiment and low overall outbound volume. In terms of demand, the resumption of production by previously overhauled enterprises has driven a month - on - month increase in the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. Entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises is slow, and most enterprises are in a state of flexible production control, limiting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. With the continuous rise of finished product inventory, there is a possibility of individual enterprises undergoing maintenance or reducing production in the later stage. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,150 - 12,650 in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,390 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,570 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 0 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber is 0 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,820 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 146,495 lots, up 14,415 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 61,828 lots, up 2,594 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 30,266 lots, up 1,040 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 11,485 lots, up 428 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 87,160 tons, up 2,900 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 59,573 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Vietnam 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 10,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 270 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 720 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,930 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 545 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 53.8 US dollars/ton, up 10.6 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, up 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, down 61,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 64.07%, up 0.57 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 71.57%, up 0.65 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 40.58 days, up 1.07 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.51 days, up 0.56 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 13.36%, up 0.67 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.76%, up 0.45 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.51%, down 0.2 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.51%, down 0.2 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,200 tons, an increase of 2.08%. The bonded area inventory was 77,500 tons, an increase of 4.88%; the general trade inventory was 421,400 tons, an increase of 1.58%. As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a month - on - month increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points [2].
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251217
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-17 10:19