摩根士丹利：2026年美国经济展望：走出政策不确定性

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Trump administration's tariffs, effective from Spring 2025, have raised the effective tax rate to approximately 16%, contributing to a 30 basis point increase in commodity prices, with an expected total transmission of 70 basis points by Q1 2026, exerting upward pressure on inflation [1][3][4] - PCE inflation is projected to peak at around 3% in Q1 2026, declining to 2.6% by Q4 2026, primarily driven by tariff-affected commodity price increases, with no significant second-round effects anticipated [1][5] - The labor market is expected to remain weak, with a peak unemployment rate of 4.7% in Q2 2026, as companies respond to higher tariffs by reducing labor costs and profit margins, leading to a slowdown in job growth [1][6] - The "Beautiful Bill" is estimated to contribute approximately 40 basis points to economic growth, with actual impacts potentially ranging from 0 to 1 percentage point depending on fiscal multiplier assumptions [1][7][8] - Artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditure is expected to contribute about 30% to GDP growth, with AI projected to account for approximately 40% of U.S. economic growth in 2026 and 2027, translating to about 20% of total growth [1][11][12] Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is anticipated to emerge from a period of high uncertainty, achieving moderate growth of around 2% over the next few years, although inflation may remain above the 2% target until 2027 [2][12] Tariff Impact - The tariffs implemented by the Trump administration have significantly increased commodity prices, with expectations that this upward pressure will peak in Q1 2026 [3][4] Inflation Projections - PCE inflation is expected to peak at 3% in Q1 2026 and decrease to 2.6% by Q4 2026, largely due to the impact of tariffs on commodity prices [5] Labor Market and Federal Reserve Policy - The labor market is projected to remain weak, with a peak unemployment rate of 4.7% in Q2 2026, leading to a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve between September and December [6] Legislative Impact - The "Beautiful Bill" is expected to have a growth effect of about 40 basis points, with potential variations based on fiscal multiplier assumptions [7][8] AI Contribution - AI is projected to significantly enhance productivity, contributing approximately 25-35 basis points to productivity improvements by 2027, with a potential for 40-50 basis points in a supply-driven scenario [11]