大越期货纯碱早报-20251218

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels. The industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved. In the short term, soda ash is expected to move in a volatile manner [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plant production is at a high level, with the second - phase of Yuangxing expected to be put into operation before the end of the year, leading to an expected abundant supply. Downstream float glass and photovoltaic daily melting volumes are on a downward trend, and soda ash plant inventories are at a historically high level [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,135 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2605 is 1,170 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 35 yuan, indicating that the futures price is higher than the spot price [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 149.43 million tons, a 2.88% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [2]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. - Expectation: Soda ash is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term due to weak fundamentals [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Bullish Factors: Equipment problems have led to enterprise production cuts for maintenance, resulting in a slow recovery of soda ash supply [3]. - Bearish Factors: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,170 yuan/ton | 1,140 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | | Current Value | 1,170 yuan/ton | 1,135 yuan/ton | - 35 yuan/ton | | Change Rate | 0.00% | - 0.44% | 16.67% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Supply in the Fundamentals - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 147.60 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is - 129 yuan/ton, both at historically low levels [15]. - Operating Rate, Production Capacity, and Output: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 84.35%. The weekly production of soda ash is 73.54 million tons, including 39.78 million tons of heavy soda ash, with production at a historically high level [18][21]. - Production Capacity Changes: From 2023 to 2025, there have been and are still plans for significant increases in soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the total new production capacity was 6.4 billion tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 billion tons; and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 billion tons, with 1 billion tons actually put into production [22]. 3.7 Demand in the Fundamentals - Production - Sales Ratio: The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 106.02% [25]. - Downstream Demand: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 157,200 tons, with an operating rate of 74.85% [28]. 3.8 Inventory in the Fundamentals The national soda ash plant inventory is 149.43 million tons, a 2.88% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and various growth rates [35].