集运早报-20251218

Report Overview - The report is a container shipping morning report released on December 18, 2025, by the energy and chemical team of the research center [2]. 1. Futures Market 1.1 Futures Contract Prices and Changes - EC2512 closed at 1632.0 with a 0.03% increase, EC2602 at 1699.8 with a 0.77% increase, EC2604 at 1124.1 with a 1.02% increase, EC2606 at 1283.7 with a 0.49% decrease, EC2608 at 1448.1 with a 0.98% decrease, and EC2610 at 1045.2 with a 0.38% increase [2]. 1.2 Futures Contract Positions and Changes - The positions of EC2512 decreased by 348 to 2218, EC2602 decreased by 12 to 31971, EC2604 decreased by 869 to 19059, EC2606 increased by 1 to 2306, EC2608 decreased by 26 to 1325, and EC2610 increased by 84 to 4795 [2]. 1.3 Futures Month - spreads - The month - spread of EC2512 - 2504 was 507.9, down 10.9 from the previous day and 83.2 week - on - week; EC2512 - 2602 was - 67.8, down 12.5 from the previous day and 112.7 week - on - week; EC2502 - 2604 was 55.7, up 1.6 from the previous day and 29.5 week - on - week [2]. 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Indexes - The SCFI (European line) was 1538 US dollars/TEU on December 12, 2025, up 9.86% from the previous period; CCFI was 1470.55 points, up 1.59%; NCFI was 1064.13 points, up 9.98% [2]. 2.2 European Line Spot Quotes - In Week 51, MSK opened at 2400 (up 200 from the previous period), MSC and OA quoted 2600 - 2700, and PA quoted 2400 US dollars; in Week 52, MSK opened at 2300 (down 100). In January, MSK and MSC announced price increases to 3500 and 3700 US dollars respectively. MSC opened at 2864 US dollars (up 200), equivalent to 2000 points on the futures [4]. 3. Market Analysis and Suggestions 3.1 Overall Market Trend - There has been no obvious trending market recently, and the futures market has fluctuated widely around the news of MSK's cabin opening [2]. 3.2 Future Market Outlook - After the 02 contract, the market depends on the spot trend. The contradiction lies in the peak height and time of the freight rate in January. Historically, the freight rate peaks 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival, but high capacity in January may suppress the increase [2]. 3.3 Trading Suggestions - Currently, the risk - reward ratio for both shorting and going long is not high, so it is recommended to wait and see. In the short - term, the downside space for the 04 contract is small, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities when it follows the spot or recovers the basis. For the far - month contracts, a positive spread trading strategy can be considered, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for the 10 contract [2][3]. 4. Related News - On December 17, the head of Mossad claimed that Iran still desired to build nuclear weapons, increasing the possibility of further conflict between the two countries [5].