农产品早报-20251218

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: December 18, 2025 [1] - Report author: Agricultural products team of the research center [1] Group 2: Corn/Starch Market Price Data | Date | Changchun | Jinzhou | Weifang | Shekou | Basis | Trade Profit | Import Profit and Loss | Heilongjiang | Weifang | Basis | Processing Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/11 | 2160 | 2250 | 2224 | 2430 | 7 | 30 | 244 | 2750 | 2820 | 182 | -23 | | 2025/12/12 | 2160 | 2250 | 2224 | 2430 | 8 | 30 | 238 | 2750 | 2820 | 179 | -23 | | 2025/12/15 | 2160 | 2270 | 2230 | 2430 | 42 | 10 | 253 | 2750 | 2820 | 192 | -21 | | 2025/12/16 | 2160 | 2240 | 2230 | 2420 | 20 | 30 | 252 | 2750 | 2800 | 203 | -21 | | 2025/12/17 | 2160 | 2230 | 2250 | - | 24 | - | - | 2750 | 2800 | 193 | - | | Change | 0 | -10 | 20 | - | 4 | - | - | 0 | 0 | -10 | - | [2] Market Analysis - Corn: This week, corn spot prices showed a differentiated trend, with port prices falling and production area prices fluctuating strongly. In the short term, the grain sales progress in the production area increased year-on-year, but the channel inventory was still at a moderately low level. Before the channel inventory officially accumulates, the spot is expected to remain strong. In the medium and long term, structural changes need to be focused on. Since the new grain was listed, there has been no expected concentrated selling pressure in the market. It is judged from the current market dynamics that more grain sources may be hoarded by middlemen, resulting in the postponement of short-term supply pressure. If the downstream consumption demand enters a seasonal decline channel in the future, and the grain sources hoarded by middlemen are released intensively, the market selling pressure may increase significantly, and the corn price may weaken periodically [3]. - Starch: In the short term, supported by seasonal consumption, the downstream replenishment demand drives enterprises to destock stably. At the same time, in an environment where raw material supply is limited, the industry's willingness to support prices intensifies, and the starch price is expected to remain stable. In the medium and long term, changes in the downstream consumption rhythm need to be focused on, which will be the key supporting factor for the price trend. After the seasonal peak season, whether the enterprise inventory will continue to destock will be the key factor for future starch pricing [3]. Group 3: Sugar Market Price Data | Date | Liuzhou | Nanning | Kunming | Liuzhou Basis | Thailand | Brazil | Zhengzhou Futures | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/11 | 5480 | 5370 | 5340 | 235 | 229 | 408 | 2101 | | 2025/12/12 | 5460 | 5370 | 5295 | 246 | 139 | 318 | 2101 | | 2025/12/15 | 5450 | 5360 | 5295 | 243 | 177 | 356 | 2101 | | 2025/12/16 | 5420 | 5340 | 5260 | 287 | 188 | 367 | 2101 | | 2025/12/17 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Change | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | [5] Market Analysis - Sugar: The supply of domestic new sugar is increasing successively. This week, the sugar factory quotations dropped rapidly, and the weak spot market drove the futures market down. In the short term, the supply pressure of raw sugar decreases, and the futures pricing can still refer to the cost of domestic sugar and the spot price. In the medium and long term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the futures price will seek the cost of out-of-quota imports downward. Pay attention to weather risks and policy changes [6]. Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Market Price Data | Date | 3128 Cotton | Imported M-grade US Cotton | Cotlook A (FE) | Import Profit | Warehouse Receipts + Forecast | Vietnamese Yarn | Spot Price | Vietnamese Yarn Import Profit | 32S Spinning Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/11 | 14630 | 73.7 | 74.2 | 1719 | 6552 | 2.53 | 21000 | 491 | -361 | | 2025/12/12 | 14630 | 73.5 | 74.0 | 1767 | 6817 | 2.53 | 20990 | 503 | -371 | | 2025/12/15 | 14690 | 73.4 | 73.9 | 1853 | 6956 | 2.53 | 20990 | 510 | -434 | | 2025/12/16 | 14715 | 73.5 | 73.9 | 1884 | 7221 | 2.53 | 20990 | 537 | -460 | | 2025/12/17 | 14715 | 72.6 | - | - | - | 2.53 | 20990 | 543 | -460 | | Change | 0 | -1 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | [9] Market Analysis - Cotton: The initial inventory is relatively low year-on-year, offsetting most of the increase in production. The focus is on subsequent consumption. Since the domestic textile production is still expanding and the recent profits are good, coupled with the good results of the China-US Busan talks and the mutual reduction of tariffs again, which is beneficial to China's textile and clothing exports, the demand is expected to improve next year, and it is suitable for long-term long positions [9]. Group 5: Egg Market Price Data | Date | Hebei | Liaoning | Shandong | Henan | Hubei | Basis | White-Feathered Broiler | Yellow-Feathered Broiler | Pig | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/11 | 3.02 | 2.96 | 3.05 | 3.10 | 3.16 | 460 | 3.62 | 3.70 | 17.62 | | 2025/12/12 | 3.02 | 2.96 | 3.05 | 3.10 | 3.11 | 510 | 3.62 | 3.70 | 17.50 | | 2025/12/15 | 3.02 | 2.96 | 3.05 | 3.00 | 3.11 | 490 | 3.62 | 3.65 | 17.40 | | 2025/12/16 | 3.02 | - | - | - | - | - | 3.62 | 3.65 | 17.40 | | 2025/12/17 | 3.02 | - | - | - | - | - | 3.62 | 3.70 | 17.43 | | Change | 0.00 | - | - | - | - | - | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.03 | [12] Market Analysis - Eggs: The inflection point of inventory has appeared, but the base is still high. The key driver for the future decline in inventory lies in the culling rhythm. If the culling of laying hens accelerates, it will directly increase the downward slope of the inventory curve, which means that the process of capacity reduction will speed up. According to a survey in Hebei, the proportion of laying hens over 400 days old is currently about 10%-20%. Farmers still have expectations for the Spring Festival stocking market. If the spot price remains low before the Laba Festival, it is expected that this batch of chickens will be culled intensively, which is beneficial to the egg price in the second quarter [12]. Group 6: Apple Market Price and Inventory Data | Date | Shandong 80 First and Second Grade | Shaanxi 70 General Goods | National Inventory | Shandong Inventory | Shaanxi Inventory | January Basis | May Basis | October Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/11 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | 719.79 | 270.48 | 201.85 | -759.00 | -605.00 | 410.00 | | 2025/12/12 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -841.00 | -619.00 | 432.00 | | 2025/12/15 | 8900.00 | - | - | - | - | -611.00 | -332.00 | 709.00 | | 2025/12/16 | 8900.00 | - | - | - | - | -606.00 | -229.00 | 749.00 | | 2025/12/17 | 8900.00 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Change | 0.00 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | [15][16] Market Analysis - Apples: The national apple storage is basically over. According to data from the Shaanxi Fruit Service Center, the estimated national cold storage storage this year is about 55%, a decrease of more than 10% compared with last year, with an estimated storage volume of 7-7.8 million tons. Among them, the storage in Shaanxi is 50%-55%, a decrease of 10%-15% compared with last year; the storage in Gansu is 70%, a decrease of 20%-30% compared with last year; and the storage in Shandong is 50%, a decrease of 10% compared with last year. Currently, high-quality apples are scarce in the spot market, and the price difference between high-quality and low-quality apples is widening. Recently, the futures market follows the delivery logic and maintains a high-level shock. In the medium term, due to the large number of competing products on the consumption side, the futures market is expected to show a pattern of near-term strength and long-term weakness [16]. Group 7: Pig Market Price Data | Date | Henan Kaifeng | Hubei Xiangyang | Shandong Linyi | Anhui Hefei | Jiangsu Nantong | Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/11 | 11.38 | 11.35 | 11.37 | 11.75 | 11.80 | 160 | | 2025/12/12 | 11.38 | 11.40 | 11.52 | 11.90 | 12.00 | 55 | | 2025/12/15 | 11.43 | 11.60 | 11.62 | 12.05 | 12.10 | 125 | | 2025/12/16 | 11.43 | 11.55 | 11.52 | 11.95 | 12.05 | 80 | | 2025/12/17 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Change | - | - | - | - | - | - | [16] Market Analysis - Pigs: The spot price was strong over the weekend. Snowfall and cooling in the north, combined with the weekend effect, and the continuous increase in consumption in the south. As the Winter Solstice approaches, pay attention to the sustainability of the spot price rebound. There is an expectation of both supply and demand increasing before the Spring Festival, and there may still be a short-term supply-demand mismatch, but the near-term supply pressure is still large, waiting for the peak season to be tested. The improvement of capacity reduction has improved the long-term sentiment, but the market reaction is cautious. The improvement of the long-term expectation depends on the near-term capacity and inventory reduction. Continuously pay attention to whether there will be significant expected differences in the slaughter rhythm, epidemics, and policies [16].