沥青期货早报-20251218

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. The overall market is affected by factors such as high - cost crude oil, insufficient demand for high - price goods, and the strengthening expectation of the European and American economic recession. It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract oscillating in the range of 2983 - 3041 [8][9][12][13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply - side: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2158000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased by 0.18 percentage points month - on - month, the sample enterprise output decreased by 0.59% month - on - month, and the device maintenance volume increased by 14.29% month - on - month. The refinery has reduced production this week, and the supply pressure may be reduced next week [8] - Demand - side: The current demand for asphalt is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and modified asphalt (except for road - modified asphalt) have low and declining or flat opening rates [8] - Cost - side: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 361.95 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.00%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 981.9371 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.11%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. The weakening of crude oil is expected to weaken the short - term support [9] - Comprehensive Judgment: The fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bearish, the inventory is neutral, the disk is neutral, and the main position is bearish. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract oscillating in the range of 2983 - 3041 [8][9] - Leverage Factors: Bullish factors include the relatively high cost of crude oil providing some support; bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - price goods and the overall downward demand with a strengthened expectation of the European and American economic recession [11][12] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report presents the previous day's asphalt market overview, including the prices, basis, inventory, production, and profit of different contracts and varieties, as well as their changes compared with the previous values [15] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - Basis Trend: It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [17][18][19][20] - Spread Analysis: - Main Contract Spread: Displays the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23] - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: Illustrates the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25][26] - Crude Oil Crack Spread: Shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 [27][28][29] - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: Presents the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [31][33] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [34][35] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - Asphalt Profit: Displays the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [37][38] - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: Shows the historical profit spread trend between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [40][41][42] - Supply - side Analysis: - Shipment Volume: Presents the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [44][45] - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: Shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46][47] - Production: Displays the historical weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [49][50][51] - Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: Illustrates the historical price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [52][54] - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: Shows the historical monthly production of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [55][56] - Operating Rate: Displays the historical weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [58][59] - Maintenance Loss Estimation: Shows the historical maintenance loss estimation trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [60][61] - Inventory Analysis: - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: Displays the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [63][64][65][66] - Social Inventory and Factory Inventory: Shows the historical social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [67][68] - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio: Displays the historical factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [70][71] - Import - Export Situation: Shows the historical import and export trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [73][74][76][77] - Demand - side Analysis: - Petroleum Coke Production: Displays the historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [79][80] - Apparent Consumption: Shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [82][83] - Downstream Demand: - Highway Construction and Related Indicators: Displays the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [85][86][87] - Downstream Machinery Demand: Shows the historical sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [89][90][91][92][93] - Asphalt Operating Rate: - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate: Displays the historical operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [94][95] - Asphalt Operating Rate by Use: Shows the historical operating rates of building asphalt, modified asphalt, and other types of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [97][98] - Downstream Operating Conditions: Displays the historical operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [99][100][101][102] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt [104]