大越期货油脂早报-20251218

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which has put pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Category Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase. Entering the production - cut season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,260, with a basis of 438, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, which is bearish [2]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract increased, which is bullish [2]. - Expectation: The soybean oil contract Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,600 - 8,000 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, but entering the production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,420, with a basis of 78, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%, which is bullish [3]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [3]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract decreased, which is bullish [3]. - Expectation: The palm oil contract P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 8,600 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, entering the production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,681, with a basis of 731, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, which is bearish [4]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract decreased, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The rapeseed oil contract OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,800 - 9,200 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely Positives: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - Likely Negatives: Edible oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic edible oil inventories are continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. - Main Logic: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5].