大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251218

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: December 18, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP main contracts have weak disk trends, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventories, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected that both LLDPE and PP will show volatile trends today [4][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, with a 137,000 barrels per day increase in December and a suspension of the increase plan from January to March 2026. Coal prices have declined, and coal - based production profits have stabilized. The demand for agricultural films is relatively stable, while the demand for packaging films has weakened after the peak season. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6460 (-60), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -19, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.3%, which is neutral [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 523,000 tons (+15,000 tons), which is bearish [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract has a weak disk trend, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventories, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to show a volatile trend today [4] - Likely Factors: Cost support [5] - Negative Factors: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and a large number of new production capacities in the fourth quarter [5] - Main Logic: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - Fundamentals: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, with a 137,000 barrels per day increase in December and a suspension of the increase plan from January to March 2026. Coal prices have declined, and coal - based production profits have stabilized, while PDH profits have continued to decline with the strong propane price. The overall demand for plastic weaving has entered the off - season and declined, while the demand for pipes is acceptable. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6250 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -4, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.1%, which is neutral [6] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 538,000 tons (+1000 tons), which is bearish [6] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6] - Expectation: The PP main contract has a weak disk trend, with oversupply in the fundamentals, the propane price driving the disk, neutral industrial inventories, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to show a volatile trend today [6] - Likely Factors: Cost support [7] - Negative Factors: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and a large number of new production capacities in the fourth quarter [7] - Main Logic: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [7] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory Data - LLDPE: The spot price of delivery products is 6460 (-60), the price of the 05 contract is 6479 (-64), the basis is -19 (+4), the number of warehouse receipts is 11332 (0), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 523,000 tons (+15,000 tons), and the social PE inventory is 469,000 tons (+12,000 tons) [8] - PP: The spot price of delivery products is 6250 (0), the price of the 05 contract is 6254 (-2), the basis is -4 (+2), the number of warehouse receipts is 10730 (-4383), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 538,000 tons (+1000 tons), and the social PP inventory is 305,000 tons (-10,000 tons) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an increasing trend. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an increasing trend. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]