大越期货豆粕早报-20251218

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - M2605 Soybean Meal: Expected to trade in the range of 2720 - 2780. Influenced by the US soybean trend, technical adjustments, short - term demand improvement, and spot price discounts. Short - term outlook is neutral, with a tendency to be slightly weaker in the short run [8][9]. - A2605 Soybeans: Expected to trade in the range of 4040 - 4140. Affected by the US soybean trend, domestic soybean reserves, and import volumes. Short - term outlook is neutral, with an overall slightly weaker expectation [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean Meal: Trading range 2720 - 2780, short - term neutral but slightly weaker. Influenced by US soybean trends, demand, and inventory [8][9]. - Soybeans: Trading range 4040 - 4140, short - term neutral but slightly weaker. Affected by US soybean trends, import volumes, and domestic soybean advantages [10][11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather are uncertain. US soybeans are oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark. - Domestic imported soybean arrivals will decline in December, while oil mill soybean inventories remain high. South American soybean planting and growth weather are normal, and soybean meal has returned to range - bound trading. - Reduced domestic pig - farming profits lead to low pig - restocking expectations. Soybean meal demand has rebounded from a low level in December, supporting price expectations. [12][13] 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Soybean Meal Bullish Factors: Preliminary Sino - US trade agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; no pressure on domestic oil mill soybean meal inventories; weather in US and South American soybean - producing areas is uncertain [14]. - Soybean Meal Bearish Factors: High volume of domestic imported soybean arrivals in December; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. - Soybean Bullish Factors: Imported soybean costs support the bottom of the domestic soybean market; expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports prices [16]. - Soybean Bearish Factors: Bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese purchases; expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppresses prices [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: Spot price in East China is 3040, basis is 284, indicating a premium over futures. Oil mill soybean meal inventory is 120.32 million tons, a 4.49% increase from last week and a 44.18% increase year - on - year [9]. - Soybeans: Spot price is 4100, basis is - 27, indicating a discount to futures. Oil mill soybean inventory is 733.96 million tons, a 2.65% increase from last week and a 47.57% increase year - on - year [11]. 3.5 Position Data - Soybean Meal: Main - contract short positions increased, and funds flowed in [9]. - Soybeans: Main - contract short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [11]. 3.6 Other Data - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: Provide historical data on global and domestic soybean harvest areas, production, consumption, and inventory from 2015 - 2024 [33][34]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: Include data on Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 - 2026 [35][44]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: Provide data on US soybean planting area, yield, production, and inventory from May - December 2025 [46]. - Imported Soybean Arrivals: Show monthly data from 2020 - 2025, with arrivals in November 2025 falling from a high level but an overall year - on - year increase [49]. - Oil Mill Data: Oil mill soybean inventories are high, soybean meal inventories have returned to high levels, unexecuted contracts have risen to high levels, and soybean crushing volumes remain at a relatively high level [50][52]. - Pig - Farming Data: Pig inventories are rising, sow inventories are flat year - on - year and slightly down month - on - month. Pig prices are fluctuating slightly, and piglet prices are weak [58][60].