大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20251218

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher yesterday, with the spot market having a general negotiation atmosphere and a relatively strong spot basis. The PTA device has been operating stably recently, and some polyester factories' phased replenishment has driven the spot basis to strengthen. The futures market fluctuates following the cost side. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate following the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the oil price trend and downstream load [5]. - MEG: On Wednesday, the ethylene glycol price had a narrow - range adjustment, and the market negotiation was acceptable. The ethylene glycol market was consolidating at a high level, and the spot basis further weakened. Affected by the news that a South China device will restart ahead of schedule, the ethylene glycol market weakened slightly. In the short - term, the ethylene glycol market is expected to be adjusted at a low level. Attention should be paid to the cost side and device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1前日回顾 - No information provided in the report. 3.2每日提示 - PTA: The spot price range was 4575 - 4635 yuan/ton. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 13. The PTA factory inventory was 3.86 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position decreased. It is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate following the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range [5][6]. - MEG: The ethylene glycol price had a narrow - range adjustment. The spot basis further weakened, and the low - level spot transaction was around 01 contract discount of 35 yuan/ton. The inventory in East China was 75.8 tons, an increase of 3.8 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position increased. It is expected that the short - term market will be adjusted at a low level [7]. 3.3今日关注 - PTA: Attention should be paid to the oil price trend and downstream load [5]. - MEG: Attention should be paid to the cost side and device changes [7]. 3.4基本面数据 - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity showed an increasing trend, and the production and demand also changed accordingly. For example, in December 2025, the production capacity was 9472, and the production was 684 [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2024 to 2025, the ethylene glycol production, import, and demand also had corresponding changes. For example, in December 2025, the total supply was 252, and the total demand was 247 [12]. - Price: The spot price of naphtha in CFR Japan increased by 9 dollars/ton to 584.5 dollars/ton; the spot price of p - xylene (PX) in CFR Taiwan, China decreased by 13 dollars/ton to 824 dollars/ton; the CCFEI price index of PTA in the domestic market decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 4615 yuan/ton; the CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol in the domestic market increased by 50 yuan/ton to 3630 yuan/ton [13]. - Inventory Analysis: The PTA factory inventory, ethylene glycol port inventory, and other inventories showed different trends from 2021 to 2025 [41]. - Polyester Upstream and Downstream Start - up: The start - up rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, and polyester in different periods from 2021 to 2025 showed different trends [53][57]. - Profit: PTA processing fees, ethylene glycol production profits, and polyester fiber production profits all changed from 2022 to 2025 [13][59].