工业硅期货早报-20251218

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side's output scheduling is decreasing and remains at a high level, the demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8365 - 8575 [5]. - For polysilicon, the output scheduling on the supply side continues to decrease. The short - term production of silicon wafers on the demand side decreases, and it is expected to recover in the medium term. The production of solar cells and components continues to decrease. Overall demand shows some recovery but may be weak later. Cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 60590 - 62600 [10]. - The main logic for investment is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The main bullish factors are rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt production or reduce production. The main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply but weak demand of downstream polysilicon [14][15]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 88,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 75,000 tons, a 4.17% increase from the previous week [5]. - Cost: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 was 2,874 yuan/ton, and cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - Basis: On December 17, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 730 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [5]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 561,000 tons, a 0.54% increase from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory was 187,000 tons, a 2.47% increase; and the inventory of major ports was 136,000 tons, a 3.82% increase [5]. - Market: MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20 [5]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and short positions decreased [5]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the output of polysilicon was 25,100 tons, a 2.71% decrease from the previous week. The scheduled output for December is expected to be 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the output of silicon wafers was 12.15GW, a 1.67% increase from the previous week, with an inventory of 233,000 tons, a 9.38% increase. Currently, the production of silicon wafers is in a loss state. The scheduled output for December is 45.7GW, a 15.94% decrease from the previous month. In November, the output of solar cells was 55.61GW, a 6.17% decrease. The inventory of external sales factories of solar cells last week was 9.44GW, a 4.07% increase. Currently, the production of solar cells is in a loss state. The scheduled output for December is 48.72GW, a 12.38% decrease. In November, the output of components was 46.9GW, a 2.49% decrease. The expected output of components in December is 39.99GW, a 14.73% decrease. The monthly domestic inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease, and the monthly European inventory is 33.1GW, a 6.49% decrease. Currently, the production of components is in a profitable state [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon materials in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,400 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On December 17, the price of N - type dense materials was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 9,295 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price [12]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 293,000 tons, a 0.68% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [12]. - Market: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20 [12]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and short positions increased [12]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices: The prices of most contracts showed fluctuations, with the 12 - contract having the largest increase of 2.53% [18]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts showed different degrees of change, with some contracts having significant changes in basis [18]. - Some contract spreads: The spreads of near - month contracts showed significant changes, such as the near - month to consecutive - 1 spread decreasing by 112.50% [18]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 8,815 [18]. - Organic silicon: The weekly output of DMC decreased slightly by 0.20%, and the daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 74.68%. The monthly inventory of DMC decreased by 22.02% [18]. - Aluminum alloy: The monthly output of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 8.66%, while the monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74%. The weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.95% [18]. - Spot prices: The prices of various types of industrial silicon in East China remained unchanged [18]. - Inventory: The inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and other regions showed different degrees of change, and the inventory of major ports increased [18]. - Output/operating rate: The weekly output of sample enterprises increased by 2.19%, and the operating rates in different regions also showed different trends [18]. - Cost - profit: The costs and profits of industrial silicon in different regions remained unchanged [18]. Polysilicon - Futures closing prices: The prices of all contracts showed an upward trend, with the 07 - contract having the largest increase of 5.44% [20]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts showed a significant increase in the discount of the spot price to the futures price [20]. - Spot prices: The daily prices of various types of polysilicon remained unchanged [20]. - Cost: The daily average cost and cash cost of the polysilicon industry remained unchanged [20]. - Inventory: The weekly total inventory was 293,000 tons, a 0.69% increase from the previous week [20]. - Supply - demand balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon in China showed a surplus of 2.59 million tons, a 12.61% increase from the previous month [20]. Other Aspects - Industrial silicon also includes price - basis and delivery product spread trends, inventory trends, output and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance tables at different time intervals. Polysilicon also includes downstream product trends such as silicon wafers, solar cells, components, and photovoltaic accessories, as well as component cost - profit trends and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation trends [23][26][29][33][40][42][66][72][75][78][81][84][87]