生猪期货早报-20251218

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of large pigs for slaughter in China is gradually increasing, combined with the recent rise in swine fever, leading to a short - term increase in slaughter and suppressing pig prices. It is expected that both the supply of pigs and pork will increase. On the demand side, the domestic macro - environment is expected to improve, and the demand for cured meat is gradually being released, supporting the price bottom, but overall consumption remains unoptimistic. The market is expected to see both increased supply and demand this week, with pig prices experiencing short - term fluctuations and a decline, and medium - term price movements likely to remain within a range. Attention should be paid to the monthly slaughter rhythm changes of large - scale farms and the dynamic changes in the secondary fattening market [8]. - The basis shows that the national average spot price is 11,450 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2603 contract is 65 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, presenting a neutral situation [8]. - As of September 30, the pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a 0.2% month - on - month increase and a 2.3% year - on - year increase; as of the end of September, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, a 0.01% month - on - month increase and a 0.66% year - on - year decrease, showing a bearish trend [8]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, indicating a bullish trend [8]. - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are increasing, showing a bearish trend [8]. - In the near term, both the supply and demand of pigs are increasing. It is expected that pig prices will enter a weak - oscillation pattern this week, with the LH2603 contract oscillating in the range of around 11,200 - 11,600 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - The domestic pig consumption market is affected by the approaching peak demand season, and with the spread of swine fever, the number of pigs for slaughter has increased, leading to an increase in pig supply. The spot price is expected to remain in an oscillatory pattern in the short and medium term [10]. - As the demand for cured meat approaches the end of the year, the pig spot market is gradually entering a phase of high supply and demand. The room for further short - term price decline may be limited, and prices may return to an oscillatory trend [10]. - The losses in domestic pig farming have recently shifted to small fluctuations, and short - term profits still remain in the red. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has rebounded in the short term, and the increase in both supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of pig futures and spot markets [10]. - The spot price of pigs has stopped falling and stabilized, returning to an oscillatory pattern. The futures market remains weak in the short term but may generally maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed in the future [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Bullish - The domestic pig supply has entered the peak season at the end of the year [12]. - The room for further decline in the domestic pig spot price may be limited [12]. Bearish - The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve due to the initial Sino - US trade agreement [12]. - The domestic pig inventory has increased year - on - year [12]. Main Logic - The market is focusing on the situation of pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [12]. 4. Fundamental Data Futures and Spot Prices - The table shows the prices of pig futures (near - month 2601, main 2603), pig futures warrants, and the spot prices of ternary hybrid pigs in different regions from December 10 - 17, 2025 [13]. Other Fundamental Charts - There are multiple charts showing the trends of basis and spreads in the pig futures market, the average prices of different pig specifications in the spot market, various supply - side indicators (such as binary sow prices, piglet indicators, inventory, import, cost, profit, etc.), slaughter - end prices and profits, demand - side consumption trends, pig - to - grain ratio, and the situation of pig reserve purchases and releases [14][16][22] 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report