《能源化工》日报-20251218

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Group 2: Core Views Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP) - The fundamentals of both LLDPE and PP show a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting. Polypropylene has high maintenance levels on the supply - side with an expected increase later, and its inventory is still higher than usual. The overall valuation is moderately low. For polyethylene, the operating load is gradually rising, and the upstream inventory is still high year - on - year [1]. Methanol - The methanol futures fluctuated upwards, with the basis being relatively firm. In the port area, Iranian gas restrictions led to multiple device shutdowns, but shipments are still fast. In the inland area, both supply and demand are increasing. It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract at low prices after the shipment decreases [4][5]. PVC & Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the supply - demand situation still has pressure, with high inventory levels. The price is expected to be weak. For PVC, the supply pressure remains this week, and the demand is sluggish. Although there are expectations of increased exports, the overall supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, and the price is not optimistic. It is recommended to go short on PVC after a rebound [8]. Glass & Soda Ash - For soda ash, the supply - demand situation is bearish, and the price is in a downward trend. After a technical rebound, short - term long positions can be closed, and short positions can be taken after a rebound. For glass, the spot price is stable, but the demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be under pressure, with the 01 contract following the delivery logic and the 05 contract remaining weak in the short - term [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX may fluctuate in the range of 6600 - 7000 in the short - term and should be treated with low - buying. PTA may fluctuate in the range of 4500 - 4800 in the short - term, and low - buying and TA5 - 9 low - level positive spreads are recommended. Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term, and it is recommended to sell EG2605 - C - 4100 to obtain time value. Short - fiber follows the raw material fluctuations, and the processing fee on the disk should be shorted when it is high. For polyester bottle - chips, it is recommended to sell PR2602 - P - 5500 [11]. Natural Rubber - The supply - side is supported by rising overseas raw material prices due to the tense situation between Thailand and Cambodia. The demand - side has limited improvement in production capacity utilization. The market is in a short - term stalemate between long and short forces, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate in the range of 15000 - 15500 [13]. Urea - Affected by the news of India's new round of tenders, the urea price stopped falling and rebounded. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to bottom - out and rebound in the short - term, fluctuating in the range of 1650 - 1700 [15]. Crude Oil - After a rebound, the crude oil price is affected by geopolitical factors such as the situation between the US and Venezuela and the US - Russia talks. The inventory shows a slight reduction, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose. Brent crude oil should be monitored at the level of 60 dollars per barrel [16]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - For pure benzene, the short - term supply - demand is weak, but there are expectations of improvement later. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 5300 - 5600. For styrene, the supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 6400 - 6700 in the short - term [19]. LPG - The LPG price shows certain fluctuations. The inventory and operating rates of upstream and downstream are changing. The overall market situation needs to be further observed [21]. Group 3: Summaries by Catalog Polyolefins - Prices: L2601 and L2605 of LLDPE decreased, while PP2601 slightly increased and PP2605 slightly decreased. The basis and spreads of various varieties also changed [1]. - Inventory: PE enterprise inventory increased, and social inventory decreased. PP enterprise inventory slightly increased, and trader inventory decreased [1]. - Operating Rates: PE device operating rate was stable, and downstream weighted operating rate decreased. PP device operating rate increased, and powder operating rate decreased [1]. Methanol - Prices: Methanol futures prices increased, and the basis was relatively firm. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [4]. - Inventory: Enterprise inventory increased, port inventory decreased, and social inventory increased [4]. - Operating Rates: Upstream domestic and overseas enterprise operating rates increased slightly, and some downstream operating rates also changed [5]. PVC & Caustic Soda - PVC: - Prices: Futures and spot prices of PVC increased. The basis and spreads had corresponding changes [8]. - Supply - Demand: Supply pressure remained, and demand was sluggish. There were expectations of increased exports [8]. - Caustic Soda: - Prices: Prices in different regions and forms had different trends. The export profit increased slightly [8]. - Supply - Demand: Supply - demand pressure remained, with high inventory levels [8]. Glass & Soda Ash - Glass: - Prices: Spot prices in different regions were stable, and futures prices had minor changes [9]. - Inventory: Factory inventory decreased [9]. - Soda Ash: - Prices: Spot and futures prices had small fluctuations [9]. - Supply - Demand: Supply - demand was bearish, with reduced demand from the float and photovoltaic ends [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - Prices: Upstream raw material prices such as crude oil and naphtha, and downstream polyester product prices all had different degrees of change [11]. - Inventory: MEG port inventory was expected to increase [11]. - Operating Rates: Operating rates of various links in the polyester industry chain, such as PX, PTA, and MEG, changed [11]. Natural Rubber - Prices: Spot prices of natural rubber increased, and the basis and spreads changed [13]. - Inventory: Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory increased [13]. - Supply - Demand: Supply was affected by the overseas situation, and demand was limited by the slow recovery of tire production and the weakening of replacement demand [13]. Urea - Prices: Futures prices increased, and spot prices in different regions had different trends [15]. - Inventory: Factory inventory decreased [15]. - Supply - Demand: Supply was abundant, and demand was affected by environmental inspections and the limited impact of India's tenders [15]. Crude Oil - Prices: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices had different trends, and the spreads between different varieties and months also changed [16]. - Inventory: EIA inventory decreased slightly [16]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - Prices: Pure benzene and styrene spot and futures prices decreased, and the spreads and cash - flows had corresponding changes [19]. - Inventory: Pure benzene port inventory was stable, and styrene port inventory decreased [19]. - Operating Rates: Operating rates of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries decreased [19]. LPG - Prices: Futures prices of LPG had different trends, and the basis and spreads changed [21]. - Inventory: Refinery inventory ratio and port inventory increased [21]. - Operating Rates: Upstream refinery operating rate increased, and some downstream operating rates also changed [21].