大越期货菜粕早报-20251218

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate between 2300 and 2360. The market has returned to a volatile state waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. The contract will maintain a short - term volatile pattern affected by soybean meal and the uncertainty of Sino - Canadian trade [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Not provided in the content 3.2 Recent Important News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. The Canadian rapeseed harvest is underway, but Sino - Canadian trade issues reduce the short - term export and domestic supply [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is levied. The final ruling is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand has entered the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping case [12]. - The current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in spot transactions fluctuates slightly. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal for the 2605 contract expands slightly [13][20]. - The rapeseed meal futures contract changes the main contract. The spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium expands slightly [18]. - The arrival of imported rapeseed increases slightly in December, and the import cost is affected by tariffs [23]. - The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remains low, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level [25]. - The oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume remains at zero operation rate [27]. - The price of aquaculture fish drops slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish remains stable [35]. 3.5 Position Data - The main position of rapeseed meal changes from long to short, and funds flow in [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoints and Strategies - Fundamental aspect: Rapeseed meal fluctuates and declines, affected by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand is in the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. It is neutral [9]. - Basis: The spot price is 2500, the basis is 169, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [9]. - Inventory: The rapeseed meal inventory is 17,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is bullish [9]. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish [9]. - Main position: The main position changes from long to short, and funds flow in, which is bearish [9]. - Expectation: Rapeseed meal returns to a volatile state due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. In the short term, it will maintain a volatile pattern, and the subsequent development should be monitored [9].